Rice-eatingChainFriends

#通胀与货币政策 Seeing the reports from Delphi and Arthur Hayes, what comes to mind is the period from 2008 to 2011.
At that time, the Federal Reserve's QE1, QE2, and QE3 took turns, with the central bank's balance sheet expanding wildly. I watched as commodities, gold, and later Bitcoin soared from the bottom. Liquidity was like a flood; it always finds an outlet. In the early days, retail investors didn't know where to invest, but now the path is very clear.
The current situation is somewhat a replay of those times, but with essential differences. The liquidity flood of 2020 prompted quick and exa

#机构采用 Seeing Saylor hinting at increased holdings again, Galaxy announcing a $250,000 target price, and IOSG setting the tone for a "institutional accumulation phase" rather than a bull market top—this scene, I have seen it in history.
At the end of 2016, institutional entry was still a novelty. Back then, retail investors were still glued to their screens day and night on exchanges, while institutions were quietly positioning themselves, with almost no one understanding their patience. The current scene is a mirror image, only scaled up with greater certainty.
Key data speaks volumes: $25 bi

#美联储政策 Seeing Hasset's remarks, my first reaction was to recall the scene from 2021. Remember? Back then, some people confidently claimed that inflation was "temporary," and as everyone saw later, that wasn't the case. The March moving average argument this time sounds like redefining "low inflation" within a different logical framework.
The problem is, the choice of statistical methods has never been neutral. The same data can tell completely different stories depending on the perspective. I've gone through many economic cycles, and before each policy shift, there are similar "new angles" to

#市场周期与投资策略 Seeing this wave of market activity, my mind once again recalls the lows of 2015. At that time, Ethereum had not yet officially launched, and the entire market was filled with despair, with air coins flying everywhere. But even in that hopeless situation, some people began to quietly position themselves. History always repeats itself in astonishing ways.
This time, the ETH/NASDAQ ratio has touched around 0.11, and the RSI has fallen below 30. From a data perspective, this is indeed a noteworthy signal. I reviewed records from previous years, and every time this indicator shows extr

#加密货币监管立法 The CLARITY Act is finally making its way to the Senate. I've been waiting quite some time for this news.
Thinking back to 2017, during that period, the US regulatory stance was still in its exploratory phase, with the SEC and CFTC each saying different things, and no one in the market could clearly determine whether Bitcoin was a commodity or a security. The chaos back then led to many project founders facing difficulties and many investors feeling confused. We've experienced those days, watching some projects fail due to unclear regulations, and also seeing some smart teams proact

#预测市场平台 Watching the probability of Bitcoin breaking $100,000 on Polymarket drop from earlier figures to 11%, this shift is worth a deep look. It’s not just a numerical change; it’s a real reflection of market psychology.
Remember the 2017 cycle, when the extreme bullish sentiment on prediction platforms also experienced a rapid downward revision. From "definitely hitting $200,000" to "it might just be like this," all within a week or two. The beauty of prediction markets is that they anchor participants’ confidence with real money—no one would bet on something they don’t believe in.
The curr

#资产代币化 When I saw the SEC's letter of no action, I was pondering a question—Is this truly a turning point for the tokenization of U.S. stocks, or just another regulatory "pie in the sky"?
After carefully reading the document, I realized it's not that simple. The exemption granted to DTC is indeed a breakthrough, but the essence of this breakthrough has been misunderstood by many. It doesn't mean "stocks can be freely traded as tokens," but rather "within our controlled, licensed, and fully risk-managed system, we can record transactions on the blockchain in a new way."
This reminds me of the

#比特币技术分析 Seeing the Federal Reserve's rate hike landing, the market's reaction and the logic behind it are worth a careful analysis. This isn't the first time we've witnessed such a milestone—whenever major macro variables settle, the market begins to truly price in them.
The unanimous vote on the decision was once seen as a dark cloud hanging over the market. But today's reaction tells us that this expectation has long been fully digested. Bitcoin surged over 2% in the short term, and more importantly, we see those long-silent major players start to speak up, especially that trader who hasn'

#美联储降息 Seeing the signal of a softening labor market, my mind immediately flashes back to the scenes around 2008. Back then, we also watched helplessly as employment data worsened and non-farm payrolls were repeatedly revised downward, forcing the central bank to open the door to rate cuts. History always has astonishing similarities.
Today, the Federal Reserve faces the same dilemma—inflation has not fully returned to target, but employment is already starting to lag. This is the moment that tests policymakers' judgment the most. Chris Igoe is right; the signals of a weakening labor market a

#比特币价格走势 When I saw this message, what flashed through my mind was the 2017 wave. Back then, there were voices saying Bitcoin would break through $100,000, with all kinds of on-chain data and technical analysis flooding in. And what happened? The winter of 2018 left many people with nothing.
This time is different; the big money is putting real gold and silver on the line — whales accurately shorted on the night before the 10.15 plunge, earning nearly $100 million from $500 million in shorts. What does this indicate? It shows that someone has access to deeper market information than retail in

#稳定币市场发展 Seeing JPM Coin being migrated to Base by JPMorgan, my mind flashes back to those years.
I still remember around 2015, what was the attitude of traditional finance towards blockchain—either dismissive or secretly researching without willing to disclose. Now, major global systemic banks are actively deploying their tokenized products on public blockchains, and this shift itself says everything.
The development trajectory of the stablecoin market is actually quite interesting. When USDT was dominant in the early years, no one imagined this day would come. Later, USDC, DAI, and various

#美联储流动性政策 Seeing Luke Gromen's remarks, I feel a sense of familiarity. This brother has gone from $30,000 at the end of 2022 to now, suddenly turning short-term bearish. The logic behind this shift is worth pondering.
I still remember the wave in 2017, when the narrative was also "ample liquidity, printing money entering a new cycle." But what about reality? Ultimately, it depends on the Federal Reserve's true policy intentions. He's right—unless it's nuclear-level money printing, it's tightening. The policy swings over the past two years have fully validated this point.
The most interesting

#加密货币监管政策 When I observed the Libra controversy in 2019, I was thinking—panic in the financial system often stems from excessive imagination of new things. At that time, the entire market was filled with an apocalyptic atmosphere, as if stablecoins would drain the banking system overnight. But over the years, reality has given us a calm answer.
A few days ago, I read research data from Cornell University, which truly validated my observations over these years. Although stablecoins have experienced explosive growth, there has been almost no loss of bank deposits. Why? Because people underestim

#美联储降息政策 Seeing this CPI report, my mind flashed back to the 2015 cycle. Back then, the signals were similar—inflation pressures easing, policymakers beginning to loosen the stance. I remember how many people argued "this time is different," but in the end, cycles are cycles.
Hassett now says the Federal Reserve has ample room to cut rates. I don’t doubt his data; I just recalled certain moments in history. Looking at the three-month moving average, inflation is indeed on the right track—this indicator can filter out noise. But what’s truly interesting is—whenever policy shifts, market reacti

#空投活动 Another Alpha airdrop is here. The threshold is 226 points, with a reward of 25 RTX tokens, first come, first served. Every 5 minutes, the threshold automatically decreases by 5 points—this logic looks very familiar.
I saw a similar design over a decade ago, but back then there was no points system, just a different name: "Invitation Code." The essence of the incentive mechanism hasn't changed: creating scarcity to generate anxiety, and pushing participation through time pressure. I'm not saying this is bad; platforms need a cold start, and users need a reason to get involved.
The issue

#稳定币竞争与发展 The Libra controversy in 2019, I still remember how panicked the entire industry was at that time. The reaction from the banking system was almost a survival crisis—thinking stablecoins would drain their deposits. The logic back then seemed perfectly reasonable: since I can hold a digital dollar backed by government bonds on my phone, why keep money in a zero-interest, weekend-closed savings account?
But over the years, the facts have slapped us with data. Studies show that although stablecoins have exploded in market cap, there hasn't been a large-scale loss of bank deposits. I lat

#AI与加密货币结合 Seeing Bitcoin hold at $84,000, the first thought that flashed through my mind was—I've seen this position too many times before.
During the 2017 wave, I remember clearly how the support levels were repeatedly tested, each time like performing a familiar play. Back then, no one cared about central bank rate hikes; the market was purely driven by greed. Now, things are different. The fact that the Bank of Japan's rate hike didn't suppress Bitcoin suggests some logic worth pondering—real interest rates are still low, and liquidity is still searching for an exit.
What truly made me al

#稳定币市场竞争 Seeing the Federal Reserve's recent policy adjustment, a familiar feeling arose in my mind. When the "Strong Opposition to Presumption" was released in 2023, I thought to myself, no matter how tightly this door is closed, it cannot stop the march of history. Today's retraction is less of a sudden shift and more of regulators finally acknowledging reality—the understanding of crypto within the financial system is evolving, and the banking sector's demand is genuine.
I still remember the prosperity of 2017 and the subsequent winter, when the concept of stablecoins was just beginning to

#价格分析预测 Seeing Galaxy Research's forecast for 2026, I felt a familiar sense. Having been in this market for over twenty years, I’ve heard similar sentiments too many times—every cycle, someone says that fluctuations are unpredictable. Each time, I witness how the market charts a clear trajectory amid uncertainty.
The figure of $250,000 by the end of 2027 is actually traceable within the historical context. Bitcoin went from a few cents to thousands of dollars, from ten thousand to sixty thousand, each major leap accompanied by seemingly chaotic volatility. The "unpredictability" in 2026 essen

#比特币价格预测 Seeing Hayes' remarks, my first reaction isn't excitement but familiarity. I've seen this logic after the 2008 financial crisis and during the 2020 pandemic outbreak—whenever central banks loosen monetary policy, the market begins to weave the same story: liquidity flood → fiat currency depreciation → asset scarcity → crypto as a safe haven.
RMP indeed closely resembles QE in form, and Hayes' analytical framework is impeccable. The figure of $124,000 even has historical reference value. But there's a detail worth pondering—while he is loudly bullish, he quietly transferred $1.5 milli