#比特币价格走势 When I saw this message, what flashed through my mind was the 2017 wave. Back then, there were voices saying Bitcoin would break through $100,000, with all kinds of on-chain data and technical analysis flooding in. And what happened? The winter of 2018 left many people with nothing.

This time is different; the big money is putting real gold and silver on the line — whales accurately shorted on the night before the 10.15 plunge, earning nearly $100 million from $500 million in shorts. What does this indicate? It shows that someone has access to deeper market information than retail investors. Now, turning to long positions with a target of $106,000 and ETH 4500 makes sense logically.

But looking at their current holdings, we need to be somewhat sober — the total unrealized loss is $78.3 million, with margin remaining at only $15.92 million. This isn’t idle capital gambling; it’s a real high-stakes bet. The risk of Japanese yen rate hikes is described as "minimal," but the market is never short of black swans. Over the years, I’ve seen too many moments where "bearish arguments are untenable," only for the situation to reverse overnight.

In the short term, $106,000 is indeed a possible upward channel. But the real question is: can this rally break out of the true bottom of the historical cycle? The bull market from late 2015 to early 2017 was completely different in market structure from today. Back then, there were no spot ETFs, no large-scale institutional participation, and fewer derivatives risks.

Target levels can be watched, but don’t be fooled by the numbers. The key is whether this price level can hold, and where the incremental funds behind it are coming from. Whales’ bets represent a possibility, but not a certainty.