#美联储降息 Seeing the signal of a softening labor market, my mind immediately flashes back to the scenes around 2008. Back then, we also watched helplessly as employment data worsened and non-farm payrolls were repeatedly revised downward, forcing the central bank to open the door to rate cuts. History always has astonishing similarities.

Today, the Federal Reserve faces the same dilemma—inflation has not fully returned to target, but employment is already starting to lag. This is the moment that tests policymakers' judgment the most. Chris Igoe is right; the signals of a weakening labor market are enough to outweigh inflation concerns. I have experienced several cycles, and this logic is always the easiest to overlook on the eve of a crisis.

During the Silicon Valley Bank turmoil in 2023, the market sensed that a rate cut cycle was coming, but was shaken by a few strong employment reports. Now, it’s different—the coherence of the data has changed—non-farm employment growth stalled in October and November. This is not just monthly volatility; it’s a trend reversal. Looking back over the past twenty years, each time employment growth stalls and then completely stalls, the window for policy shifts is usually only a few months.

What’s truly interesting is that most market participants today have not experienced a full previous cycle. They cheer at the prospect of rate cuts but rarely consider that policy easing itself often marks the beginning of risks rather than the end. My simple advice—closely monitor these data points, but don’t get carried away by short-term policy expectations.

History shows us that rate cuts are the easiest to impair judgment.