# 比特币价格预测

#比特币价格预测 When I saw this message, my first reaction was to be cautious. The BTC OG whale calling for $106,000 and ETH target of $4,500 sounds very tempting, but I need to calmly look at the real situation behind the account.
$78.3 million in total unrealized losses, with margin only at $15.92 million—what is this "big shot" currently facing? ETH long position with over 5x leverage has an unrealized loss of 58%, SOL long position with 20x leverage has an unrealized loss of 292%. When caught in such a position and still calling for longs, consider the logic behind that. I've seen too many such

#比特币价格预测 Seeing these analysts' predictions, I am incredibly excited!
Many industry experts are optimistic about Bitcoin's long-term prospects, which actually reflect the gradual maturity of the entire crypto market fundamentals. Tom Lee believes Bitcoin will hit a new all-time high before the end of January 2026, Julien Bittel predicts based on historical data patterns that it could reach $170,000 within three months, and Arthur Hayes even analyzes from the perspective of the Federal Reserve's new round of quantitative easing, believing that Bitcoin could return to $124,000 or even surge to

#比特币价格预测 Seeing Hayes' remarks, my first reaction isn't excitement but familiarity. I've seen this logic after the 2008 financial crisis and during the 2020 pandemic outbreak—whenever central banks loosen monetary policy, the market begins to weave the same story: liquidity flood → fiat currency depreciation → asset scarcity → crypto as a safe haven.
RMP indeed closely resembles QE in form, and Hayes' analytical framework is impeccable. The figure of $124,000 even has historical reference value. But there's a detail worth pondering—while he is loudly bullish, he quietly transferred $1.5 milli

#比特币价格预测 When I saw this set of data, my first thought was the period in January 2023. At that time, Bitcoin was hovering between $15,500 and $17,000, and the weekly RSI was also in this range, with the entire market filled with a sense of suppression. I remember many people had already given up back then, but who would have thought that over the next year or more, this cycle would see an upward trend.
The current situation is somewhat similar, yet different. Falling from $126,000 to $80,500, a 36% decline, is indeed harsh. The weekly RSI dropped directly from 64 to 35, a speed and magnitude

#比特币价格预测 Arthur Hayes is once again turning bullish. This time, the logic is that the Federal Reserve's RMP is equivalent to a new version of QE, with liquidity release leading to Bitcoin returning to 124,000 and even pushing towards 200,000. At first glance, it sounds convincing, but I have to be honest—this guy is bullish on the surface, yet during yesterday's rebound, he quietly transferred 508 ETH to Galaxy Digital. This move is quite interesting.
Often, the most aggressive bullish voices are backed by the most rational position reductions.
In the short term, the prediction of volatility

#比特币价格预测 The Bank of Japan's rate hike has directly ignited market sentiment. Watching the calls from various industry leaders, from Eugene to Arthur Hayes to Garrett Jin, all are bullish, which indicates what? It shows that large funds are accumulating.
Bitcoin's short-term increase of over 2% is not the end; the key resistance levels are at $98,600 to $107,000, with the true strong resistance at $112,500. In other words, there is still considerable room for upward movement at the current position.
The most important thing is that Yi Lihua's words struck a chord with me — this might be the l

#比特币价格预测 I was a bit confused when I saw this news. The analyst said Bitcoin could rise to $170,000 within three months? 😲 That’s quite a difference from the $126,000 high I saw in October...
After taking a closer look, I realized it’s because the RSI indicator dropped below the oversold level. Historically, this has happened five times, and each time Bitcoin rebounded. If this time follows the historical pattern, the increase could indeed be quite significant. Also, institutional investors are entering the market, and the inflow of funds into crypto ETFs might hit new highs. Are these posit

#比特币价格预测 Seeing Citibank's forecast that Bitcoin could reach $143,000 within the year, some investors are indeed starting to get restless. But I want to remind everyone that the same report also clearly outlines risk scenarios—potentially dropping to $78,500 in a global recession. This 62% upside expectation is separated from the pessimistic scenario by an uncertain world.
Institutional forecasts often give the illusion of a "clear direction," but the truth of the market is: even professionals use ranges to express their views, which itself indicates the presence of risk. I've seen too many p

#比特币价格预测 The $143K target price provided by Citigroup is generally within the expected range. Breaking down the logic: a $70,000 support level is reasonable, as this position corresponds to key points in previous cycles. From the perspective of capital flow, the resurgence in ETF demand has indeed been the core driver recently, and signs of institutional entry can also be observed on-chain.
However, it is important to note that Citigroup has outlined three forecast scenarios—optimistic at 189K, neutral at 143K, and pessimistic at 78.5K, with a span of nearly 110K. This indicates that current

#比特币价格预测 Recently, major institutions have been intensively voicing their BTC price forecasts, ranging from $106,000 to $250,000. The wide prediction interval truly highlights the diverse imagination of this market!
But what I want to say is that instead of obsessing over how much the short-term price can rise, it’s better to understand **why** these institutions are bullish on the long term. The key word is—liquidity. The essence of the Federal Reserve’s RMP is essentially a new version of QE, with the long-term depreciation pressure on fiat currency increasing, and Bitcoin’s value as a non-