#美联储流动性政策 Seeing Luke Gromen's remarks, I feel a sense of familiarity. This brother has gone from $30,000 at the end of 2022 to now, suddenly turning short-term bearish. The logic behind this shift is worth pondering.

I still remember the wave in 2017, when the narrative was also "ample liquidity, printing money entering a new cycle." But what about reality? Ultimately, it depends on the Federal Reserve's true policy intentions. He's right—unless it's nuclear-level money printing, it's tightening. The policy swings over the past two years have fully validated this point.

The most interesting part is his observation of Tether's movements. Remember the doubts around USDT in 2018? Back then, many thought the company was playing with fire. But this time, they adjusted their asset allocation, with gold holdings surpassing Bitcoin. This detail actually reflects the intuition of an old player—under uncertain liquidity expectations, the defensive properties of gold are being revalued.

I remain cautious about the quantum computing point; the 2-9 year window is too broad. But it also shows he's thinking about genuine long-term risks. The new perspective on the power bottleneck in tech stocks, compared to the chip war, might be a deeper constraint.

Over the years, I've seen too many shouts of "always bullish" and sudden reversals to short. The key still returns to the essence of the cycle—not whether Bitcoin is worth money, but the true face of liquidity at this moment. Short-term pressures do exist, but don't forget, history always writes unexpected endings.