#通胀与货币政策 Seeing the reports from Delphi and Arthur Hayes, what comes to mind is the period from 2008 to 2011.

At that time, the Federal Reserve's QE1, QE2, and QE3 took turns, with the central bank's balance sheet expanding wildly. I watched as commodities, gold, and later Bitcoin soared from the bottom. Liquidity was like a flood; it always finds an outlet. In the early days, retail investors didn't know where to invest, but now the path is very clear.

The current situation is somewhat a replay of those times, but with essential differences. The liquidity flood of 2020 prompted quick and exaggerated market reactions; this time, Delphi is right—the rhythm will be clearer and more predictable. Signals like M2 reaching new highs and central banks continuously buying gold are flashing. The key is the game of debt monetization—my view is that the Fed's RMP is equivalent to a new version of QE.

But I have to be honest—Arthur Hayes transferring 508 ETH to Galaxy Digital is a detail that speaks volumes. On one hand, he’s bullish on $124,000, and on the other, quietly offloading. This is a trick I’ve seen too many times in this market. History tells me that the loudest shouts often come on the eve of the highest point.

The figure of $124,000 is not pulled out of thin air, but it shouldn't be seen as inevitable. The backdrop of loose liquidity is real, but arbitrage opportunities, market sentiment, and policy variables never follow textbooks. What we need is to survive long enough in this easing cycle, not to bet on a specific number.