# 通胀与货币政策

#通胀与货币政策 Seeing the reports from Delphi Digital and Arthur Hayes, the core logic is actually quite clear: global central banks are shifting towards rate cuts, the Federal Reserve's RMP is essentially a new round of QE, and liquidity is about to be unleashed—these are all positive signals.
Key data you need to remember: Bitcoin may short-term fluctuate between 80,000 and 100,000 USD, but once the market realizes that "RMP=QE," the target price directly points to 124,000 USD, and may even surge to 200,000 USD. Gold hitting new highs, M2 increasing, and central banks continuously buying gold are

#通胀与货币政策 Seeing the reports from Delphi and Arthur Hayes, what comes to mind is the period from 2008 to 2011.
At that time, the Federal Reserve's QE1, QE2, and QE3 took turns, with the central bank's balance sheet expanding wildly. I watched as commodities, gold, and later Bitcoin soared from the bottom. Liquidity was like a flood; it always finds an outlet. In the early days, retail investors didn't know where to invest, but now the path is very clear.
The current situation is somewhat a replay of those times, but with essential differences. The liquidity flood of 2020 prompted quick and exa

#通胀与货币政策 Recently, I came across an interesting technical analysis—both BTC and ETH ratios to Nasdaq have bottomed out, and the RSI indicator shows severe overselling. The underlying implications are worth pondering.
You see, this is not just a technical signal; the deeper logic lies in the changing macro policy environment. The Federal Reserve may restart quantitative easing, directly distribute cash to households, and on-chain migration in securities markets could accelerate… All these point to one direction: the traditional financial system is under pressure, and Bitcoin and Ethereum, as a

#通胀与货币政策 The labor market has collapsed, non-farm payroll data has been revised downward one after another, and the Federal Reserve is really going to loosen policy this time 🔥
Wait, what does this mean? Liquidity is coming back! The air coins are still at the bottom, waiting for the rate cut signal confirmation, those small tokens are about to take off. Inflation is still above target, but employment is stagnant, and the Fed is caught in the middle, which is very uncomfortable — in the end, liquidity will definitely take priority.
History is repeating itself, and the feast in the crypto wor

#通胀与货币政策 Seeing Federal Reserve Chair Powell's recent statements, I suddenly recalled the mistakes I made during the 2021 market rally. At that time, everyone was advocating "liquidity easing, assets will only go up," and I also followed the trend by going all-in on some projects. As a result, when inflation data was released, everything took a sharp turn downward.
This time, Powell said they would keep interest rates stable until spring, with the key phrase being "inflation remains high." What does this mean? It indicates that the Federal Reserve's current stance is hawkish, and the monetary

#通胀与货币政策 Seeing the recent discussions about the technical aspects of BTC and ETH, I want to share a fundamental principle that long-term investors need to uphold.
RSI severely oversold, clear bottom signals—these words sound very tempting and are indeed supported by data. But I need to remind everyone that the bottom of a technical chart is often the most emotionally volatile point. Every major dip is followed by voices claiming "mean reversion, inevitable"—and sometimes these are validated, but more often, we see wave after wave of "bottoms."
Inflation and changes in monetary policy do infl

#通胀与货币政策 Recently came across an interesting technical analysis about the ratio of BTC and ETH to the Nasdaq reaching a bottom🤔 Honestly, I was a bit confused at first with these indicator terms—RSI oversold area, mean reversion concepts—I think I understand them now. Does this mean the current prices might be at the bottom?
I'm especially curious about the background of "the US possibly restarting quantitative easing and directly distributing cash to households"—this seems related to macroeconomics and inflation, right? It feels like the crypto market's ups and downs are really influenced b

#通胀与货币政策 The signal of a weakening labor market is becoming increasingly clear. Non-farm payrolls stagnate, employment growth stalls, directly impacting the Federal Reserve's policy expectations—although inflation is still above target, the soft spot in employment is enough to trigger a rate cut cycle.
This offers practical insights for trading strategies: the macro environment is shifting from "high inflation pressure" to "growth concerns," and the narrative logic of risk assets is changing. Recently, I’ve been observing the position adjustments of a few experts, and I found that they are in

#通胀与货币政策 Seeing the US margin debt surge to $1.21 trillion in November, marking seven consecutive months of increase, this signal is worth paying attention to. The most striking data is the ratio of margin debt to M2 skyrocketing to 5.5%, surpassing the levels seen during the internet bubble in 2000.
Let's break down the logic behind this: Although the Federal Reserve is in a rate-hiking cycle, market leverage appetite remains strong. The 43% increase over just seven months indicates investors are continuously leveraging up. This behavior typically occurs in two scenarios—either market sentim