#市场周期与投资策略 Seeing this wave of market activity, my mind once again recalls the lows of 2015. At that time, Ethereum had not yet officially launched, and the entire market was filled with despair, with air coins flying everywhere. But even in that hopeless situation, some people began to quietly position themselves. History always repeats itself in astonishing ways.

This time, the ETH/NASDAQ ratio has touched around 0.11, and the RSI has fallen below 30. From a data perspective, this is indeed a noteworthy signal. I reviewed records from previous years, and every time this indicator shows extreme oversold conditions, the subsequent mean reversion has never disappointed. The key point is that the current policy environment—quantitative easing, on-chain financial migration, and other background factors—is completely different from those bottom ranges in history. This is not a simple technical rebound but a structural shift.

What is most thought-provoking is that the derivatives market is still making its final efforts to short. Every time I see this scene, I think of those who were liquidated at the bottom in 2017. The market has never lacked smart people; what it lacks are those who can remain rational in despair. Discussing a 50% to 100% upside may just be numbers for traders, but for those truly invested in spot, this is an opportunity to exchange time for space—provided you have enough mental resilience to withstand the intermediate volatility.

Looking back over the past ten years, every cycle bottom has not been gentle; it has been accompanied by intense emotional shocks. Today’s volatility, in hindsight, might just be a footnote next year. But staying clear-headed when this footnote appears is the dividing line between winners and laggards.