# 预测市场

#预测市场 The core value of prediction markets lies in their economic incentive mechanism—real money betting forces participants to be responsible for their opinions, which is fundamentally different from the zero-cost expression on social media. Looking at the data on Polymarket makes this very clear: Elon Musk claimed that a civil war in the UK is "inevitable," yet the market only assigns a 3% probability. This 3% is also considered too high by Vitalik, as some irrational bettors have inflated the number.
Looking at Bitcoin forecasts— the probability of reaching $100,000 again within the year h

#预测市场 Polymarket migrates from Polygon to a self-built L2, and this move is worth paying attention to. The Polygon outage on December 18 directly affected the platform's operations, and it now appears to be the trigger point.
Several signals worth tracking:
**On-chain fund transfer signals** — How tokens and liquidity move to the new L2 will leave obvious on-chain traces. Large cross-chain bridge transactions during migration can be tracked through these contract operations to gauge the scale of funds.
**The practical significance of infrastructure improvement** — Abandoning third-party provi

#预测市场 It's interesting to see Vitalik's perspective on this. Prediction markets essentially use economic incentives to combat information distortion—telling the truth is rewarded with real money, while lying faces direct economic penalties. This mechanism design is indeed much stronger than the zero-cost output of social media.
Taking the English Civil War as an example, Elon Musk's single tweet can trigger a storm of public opinion, but on Polymarket, the same question only has a 3% consensus probability. This discrepancy itself says a lot—when people's statements are backed by real money, t

#预测市场 Space is an interesting new project worth paying close attention to. It is the first 10x leverage prediction market on Solana, operated by the same team behind UFO, which in itself says a lot.
Let me break down the key points for you: Public sale starts on December 17, with a fundraising goal of $2.5 million, and the FDV linearly increases from $50 million to $99 million. The most important thing is—100% unlock at TGE, no lock-up period, and no minimum participation threshold.
The profit points here are in several dimensions: First, the participation tier system, the earlier you join, t

#预测市场 I was deeply moved by Vitalik's recent perspective — prediction markets are like the "detox" for social media.
Imagine every day being flooded with exaggerated predictions: some event "will definitely happen," certain trends are "unstoppable." What's the problem? No one is responsible for these claims. But prediction markets are different; real money is at stake. When you want to bet, your mindset instantly becomes more rational — you have to genuinely believe that something will happen before you dare to put your money on the line.
Vitalik's example is very vivid: someone on social med

#预测市场 The prediction market finally enters the true "on-chain explosion" moment! The collaboration between Kalshi and BNB Chain has shown me what a revolution in user experience looks like — no more cumbersome cross-chain bridges, just trade the results of real-world events directly with BNB and stablecoins on BSC. This is a huge step forward in democratizing finance.
Imagine, previously participating in prediction markets was like passing through five levels; now you can enter instantly. This not only lowers the barrier to entry but also allows more ordinary users to truly experience the cha

#预测市场 Seeing the probability of Bitcoin reaching $100,000 on Polymarket drop to 10%, a familiar thought crosses my mind. The number itself isn't the key; what's important is what it reflects about market sentiment—the turning point from euphoria to caution.
I've seen a similar scene in 2017. Back then, optimistic predictions about Bitcoin breaking through were everywhere on various forecasting platforms, with probabilities often above 70%. But you know what? True opportunities often arise when everyone starts to lower their expectations. It's not that low expectations necessarily lead to a re

#预测市场 V God's recent viewpoint indeed hit my sore spot. Every day scrolling through social media, I see all kinds of sensational predictions—"某某币 will skyrocket" "The market is going to crash"—sounding as if they were true, but people don't have to take responsibility for these statements.
In contrast, prediction markets are different. Taking the English Civil War as an example, Elon Musk posted that it was "inevitable," but the data on Polymarket slapped that idea hard—only a 3% probability. Real money is on the line, and lying means losing money, which forces genuine judgments.
It's like in

#预测市场 After reading Vitalik's latest insights on prediction markets, I feel deeply inspired. He’s absolutely right — prediction markets are like adding a "truth verifier" to social media.
Imagine every time we come across a catastrophic prediction, we check the actual odds on Polymarket. When we see those shocking claims only have a 3% chance of being true in the prediction market, we feel much more at ease. This isn’t just statistical data; it’s real money at stake — liars are directly punished by the market, and this economic incentive is more effective than any fact-checking.
This is the t