#美联储货币政策 The highlight of the Fed's December decision is not actually the 25bp rate cut, but the signal of balance sheet expansion. The tapering officially ended on December 1, and bank reserves have fallen to the level of financing stress, with the SOFR periodically testing the upper limit of the policy interest rate corridor — systemic liquidity pressures continue to be released.
The core highlight is the advancement of the RMP plan. According to Evercore's forecast, it will start as early as January 2026, with monthly purchases of Treasury bills around $35 billion and an annual bal

#空投与代币分配 Midnight(NIGHT) Airdrop reopens, with a threshold of 230 Alpha points and an approximate single return of 15 dollars. It may not seem significant, but the real value of such activities lies in the reflection of capital flow and market sentiment.
Several points worth noting: First, the project with a price of $0.025 and a market cap of 450 million is launching on Binance Alpha, indicating that the project team has made ample cold start preparations; secondly, the mechanism of automatically lowering the threshold by 10 points every 5 minutes is a typical time-pressure marketing strateg

#比特币价格分析 $80,000 at this level is indeed worth paying attention to. From on-chain data, the recent activity of whale wallets in this price range has indeed increased, with a noticeable frequency of large transfers and inflows to exchanges showing clear testing characteristics. In the volatile environment of December, this key psychological level of $80,000 is likely to be tested again.
The problem is that relying solely on KOL's intuitive judgment is not sufficient. It is necessary to cross-validate with the recent on-chain contract position distribution, futures funding rates, and the la

#预测市场平台与套利 The prediction market has indeed become the focus this year. From on-chain data, the flow of funds is already very clear. Platforms like Polymarket are seeing a continuous increase in volume, and large wallets have begun to position themselves in related tokens by the end of 2024, indicating that institutions have long sensed this direction.
The key observation point is the changes in the payment layer of stablecoins—the liquidity paths of USDC and USDT indicate that the pull of real application scenarios has already emerged. The prediction market is different from previous specula

#美国经济与货币政策 The Fed's interest rate cut this week is basically locked in (87.6% probability), but the real highlight of this meeting is not the rate cut itself.
There are three key signals:
**1. Balance Sheet Expansion Expectations** — Bank of America expects the Fed to announce monthly purchases of $45 billion in short-term government bonds starting in January. Whether the balance sheet can be smoothly expanded after the cessation of the reduction directly determines the direction of liquidity supply, and its impact on on-chain capital should be continuously monitored.
**2. Increasing Vot

#稳定币风险与合规 The public test launch of Tempo is worth following, but the core logic still depends on the on-chain capital flow of stablecoin payments.
The combination of Stripe and Paradigm is indeed imaginative—the fixed transaction cost model of 0.1 cents breaks the pain point of the traditional on-chain congestion cost's random fluctuations. However, from the perspective of on-chain signals, the key is to observe the subsequent real transaction volume and capital accumulation. The entry of traditional financial institutions like UBS and Cross River Bank indicates that the compliance pathw

#银行接入加密服务 The OCC's interpretive letter 1188 has sent a clear signal - US regulators are paving the way for banks to engage in encryption transactions. The key lies in the definition of "risk-free principal": banks act as middlemen rather than Holdings, and this structured design drops the risk exposure of Financial Institutions, creating a legal basis for Compliance entry.
The partnership between PNC Bank and Coinbase is worth paying attention to. It is the first among the top five banks in the United States to launch BTC trading, reflecting the real existence of high-net-worth client de

#钱包社交转型 The shift of Farcaster from social media to Wallet essentially reflects a fact that has been rigorously validated by data: the market cap of Web3 social is far lower than imagined.
The data speaks for itself. By mid-2024, the MAU peaked at nearly 80,000, but by the second half of 2025, it had dropped to less than 20,000—this isn’t volatility, it’s a trend. The real heart-wrenching comparison comes from Wiimee's experiment: the exposure of content for a general audience over four days surpassed that of four years of content in the crypto circle by two times. What does this indicate

#隐私技术解决方案 Zama's sealed bidding Dutch auction model is indeed interesting—using FHE to keep the number of bids confidential, it technically avoids the issues of front running and gas wars. The floor price of $0.005 corresponds to a FDV of 55 million, which is considered a reasonable level in the privacy computing track.
There are three core highlights: First, the token distribution logic under the background of $130 million financing is relatively transparent, with 10% public sale, of which 8% is auctioned and 2% at a fixed price, making the structure clear; Second, full unlocking means t

#加密货币抵押品应用 The significance of OCC's letter No. 1188 lies in clarifying the legal boundaries for banks participating in encryption asset trading. The risk-free principal model essentially positions banks as intermediaries—hedging clients' trades without holdings, which drops balance sheet risk.
From an on-chain perspective, this policy confirms that the impact of institutional capital entering the market is indirect but profound. Once banks, as traditional financial institutions, receive clear authorization, they will become new liquidity providers, potentially altering the current fl

#比特币市场动态 Bitcoin is competing for the 80,000 mark at the end of the year, and the logic behind the adjustments in institutional target prices is worth clarifying.
Standard Chartered Bank has lowered its target from $200,000 to $100,000 (with the target time changed to the end of 2025), primarily due to the adoption rate of institutional ETFs being lower than expected. This signal is critical—it indicates that the FOMO driven by retail investors is no longer sufficient to support high expectations, and true institutional inflow is needed to take over.
In line with Ansem's December 80,000 t

#比特币市场周期与价格 The BTC balance on the trading platform has fallen to 2.936 million coins, setting a new low for the cycle. This signal is worth following. Compared to history, the last time it reached this level was after the FTX collapse in December 2022, and the market subsequently entered a recovery phase.
From a structural perspective, the current balance decline is mainly due to whales continuously withdrawing funds on-chain—behaviors from large holders with positions exceeding 1 million and 10 million USD are consistent, as they are making on-chain reserves rather than seeking to sell. In

#美国经济数据 The target GDP growth rate for the United States is 3%. What is worth following behind this data is the actual flow signals of funds. Optimistic fiscal expectations usually drive up the valuations of risk assets, but the key is whether this growth rate can be sustained — it depends on the real performance of corporate profit growth, employment data, and consumer spending.
From an on-chain perspective, positive macro expectations often trigger adjustments in institutional fund allocations. It is recommended to closely track the inflow and outflow of large stablecoins and the movements

#比特币价格走势 James Wynn's alert is worth following, but it needs to be interpreted rationally. Looking at his historical prediction record—he issued short orders twice in November, expecting a fall to $67,000, which the actual trend has not reached; recently he closed his short order and turned bullish, expecting a rebound to $97,000-$103,000 before falling again to $46,618.
The problem with this type of prediction is that the amplitude estimate is highly deviated and the time window is vague. From the on-chain data, the key is to observe the movements of whale addresses and the flow of large

#聪明钱与加密富豪交易行为 Saylor released Tracker information again, which according to historical patterns is a precursor signal for increasing holdings. Looking at the data—MicroStrategy currently has holdings of 650,000 BTC, with a total value of $48.38 billion, and unrealized gains of 19.3%, approximately $9.35 billion.
The key lies in their average holding price of $74,436. If new positions are indeed added, it means continuing to increase at the current price level, indicating that smart money's judgment on the subsequent market trend has not changed. Large purchases by such institutions often

#美联储政策走向 The Fed's interest rate cut this week is basically a done deal, with Polymarket data showing a 93% probability for a rate cut in December, but the key signal is in January — the probability of a rate cut is only 27%, while the probability of a pause rises to 68%.
From the perspective of on-chain liquidity, this is an important policy juncture. Powell's wording this week will directly impact market expectations—Deutsche Bank expects him to emphasize that the threshold for interest rate cuts in early 2026 is very high, which means that the easing window may close in the short t

#美联储政策 The issuance of US short-term Treasury bonds has reached a dangerous level. In the past 12 months, T-Bills issued have reached $25.4 trillion, accounting for 69.4% of total Treasury issuance—this ratio is close to the historical high.
The issue behind the data is clear: the U.S. government is using short-term debt with a maturity of a few months to roll over long-term debt, which poses a typical maturity mismatch risk. Once the Federal Reserve resumes interest rate hikes due to inflation, the cost of interest will rise sharply.
From an on-chain perspective, this macro risk will gradual

#比特币价格走势 Bernstein's report has several details worth following. First, the judgment of breaking the 4-year cycle itself is crucial—historical patterns being broken often indicate a fundamental change in market structure, and the involvement of institutional funds has indeed altered the traditional retail investor-led cycle.
The most persuasive data is that ETF outflows are less than 5%, which indicates that institutions' tolerance during the pullback is far beyond expectations. A 30% pullback typically triggers significant panic among retail investors, but this time the funds have sh

#比特币投资布局 After reviewing this week's data, there are a few details worth following.
Strategy invested $960 million to increase its holdings by 10,624 bitcoins last week, with an average price of $90,615. This action itself is not considered aggressive, but in conjunction with the pace of increasing holdings by over 200,000 coins throughout the year, it shows that institutions are systematically positioning themselves. Their average price has risen from $74,696 at the beginning of the year to the current level, indicating that they are continuously entering the market even at high levels—t

#美联储降息 The Fed is almost certain to cut rates this week, with an 84% probability of a 25 BP cut, but the focus of this meeting is not on the rate cut itself, but on the policy divergence.
Five of the 12 voting members of the FOMC expressed opposition or skepticism towards further easing, a situation that has not occurred since 2019—looking at the on-chain funding situation, a strengthening of hawkish voices usually signals a marginal tightening of liquidity. The key lies in Powell's statement: if he emphasizes that the threshold for rate cuts in 2026 is very high, it means that the market