#预测市场 It's interesting to see Vitalik's perspective on this. Prediction markets essentially use economic incentives to combat information distortion—telling the truth is rewarded with real money, while lying faces direct economic penalties. This mechanism design is indeed much stronger than the zero-cost output of social media.

Taking the English Civil War as an example, Elon Musk's single tweet can trigger a storm of public opinion, but on Polymarket, the same question only has a 3% consensus probability. This discrepancy itself says a lot—when people's statements are backed by real money, their attitudes tend to become sharply more rational.

From an on-chain perspective, this also provides us with a new source of signals. The trading volume, capital flow, and odds changes in prediction markets can reflect the true judgments of large participants on a certain event. Instead of watching who shouts the loudest on X, it's better to observe where the funds in prediction markets are flowing—that's the real confidence indicator.

If the prediction market ecosystem continues to develop, its data could become a valuable alpha source, especially for markets prone to emotional misinformation. Worth ongoing monitoring.