#通胀与货币政策 Seeing Federal Reserve Chair Powell's recent statements, I suddenly recalled the mistakes I made during the 2021 market rally. At that time, everyone was advocating "liquidity easing, assets will only go up," and I also followed the trend by going all-in on some projects. As a result, when inflation data was released, everything took a sharp turn downward.

This time, Powell said they would keep interest rates stable until spring, with the key phrase being "inflation remains high." What does this mean? It indicates that the Federal Reserve's current stance is hawkish, and the monetary environment is far from being loose. Many people get excited about rate cuts, but the real risk lies in inflation expectations still being present. As long as there is no clear evidence of inflation easing, interest rates will remain locked.

My experience is that this kind of uncertain policy window is precisely when the most explosive projects and carefully crafted trap schemes to harvest retail investors tend to appear. Big players and project teams love to create false prosperity during such periods, using the excuse of "buying on dips" to attract FOMO-driven retail investors.

Don't be fooled by short-term rebounds. The truly prudent approach is to continue holding existing positions and raise standards for evaluating new projects. Until a genuine inflation turning point is confirmed, caution is always the right choice. Living longer is far more important than taking a risk for quick gains.