The Japanese rate hike has been implemented, and next is the gradual adjustment… better than expected
Many people were saying there would be a big drop before the rate cut, but blindly sticking to old methods in investing is a big taboo😎
Following that, potential positives for January:
① Crypto Structural Bill
② Crypto Innovation Exemption Bill
③ Trump announces the Fed Chair candidate
So do you think this year can bring us a prosperous year?
#成长值抽奖赢金条和精美周边 #市场触底了吗？

12.19
BTC
The current focus of the entire network is on Japan's interest rate decision, which is expected to be announced between 11:00-11:30 by the Bank of Japan. The market remains volatile at this level, with a quick dip yesterday that returned to our 84,700 level without breaking it. In summary, the short-term trend is mainly sideways, as it is a dead time. Additionally, the low liquidity around Christmas and the weekend will be similar before and after Christmas. Bitcoin hasn't fallen much, but many altcoins are gradually declining. Therefore, the current strategy for Bitcoin remains unch

12.18
BTC
Last night, the US stock market opened with BTC influenced by the US stocks, suddenly surging. However, the strong US stocks started to decline within five minutes. Compared to that, Bitcoin held up relatively well, persisting for over half an hour before starting to fall. Currently, the market's focus remains on US monetary policy, Thursday's CPI data, and Friday's Japanese interest rate hike. The market is mainly in a short-term state of confusion due to liquidity shortages. There are no obvious negative signals, but investors are hypersensitive to any minor movements. On one hand,

12.17
Yesterday, the US November employment data was released. The unemployment rate surged significantly to 4.6%, higher than expectations and the previous value. Non-farm employment increased by 64,000 jobs, surpassing the expected 50,000. Additionally, the employment figures for August and September were revised downward, with September's non-farm employment now at 108,000 after the revision. Detailed data shows that although employment numbers fluctuate, a marginal slowdown has already begun, with a noticeable weakening in employment growth.
BTC
This week has seen quite a few news developm

12.13
BTC
Yesterday’s sharp decline in US stocks and tech stocks dragged Bitcoin down. The main reasons are still poor liquidity and low investor sentiment. Therefore, if liquidity does not improve or if there are positive stimuli for the cryptocurrency sector, sentiment-driven movements will be relatively difficult. Starting next week, more macroeconomic data will be released, especially unemployment rate data, which is currently the focus. If the unemployment rate continues to rise and the job market weakens further, the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates in January re

12.12
After the FOMC meeting, the market briefly experienced a positive landing, not to mention that Powell's speech and the dot plot were not as dovish as investors had imagined. Overall risk markets showed some emotional pullback, after all, we will soon face a large amount of data and the potential for Japan's interest rate hike. Both parties agree to officially include crypto assets into the US retirement system. Once the SEC and the Department of Labor revise the rules as requested in the letter, the spot ETFs of $BTC and $ETH will naturally become compliant assets for 401(k). Long-term

12.11
The early morning interest rate decision was announced, with a 25BP cut in line with market expectations. Here are three key points from the Federal Reserve's announcement:
1. The statement included a sentence: “If there are risks that hinder the achievement of the target, be prepared to adjust monetary policy at any time.” This is considered a dovish forward guidance, implying that as long as inflation approaches the 2% target or if the employment market continues to cool and the unemployment rate increases, it will trigger monetary policy adjustments.
2. The Fed announced a short-term

12.10
The Federal Reserve's interest rate decision at 3 AM on the 11th will most likely result in a 25bp rate cut. The key focus will be on the dot plot and Powell's speech.
25bp rate cut: 88%
No rate cut: 11%
50bp rate cut: 1%
The biggest news yesterday was that the US agreed to sell Nvidia's H200 to China. For the market, this signals a continuation of the honeymoon period between the two countries, and there's no need to worry too much about US-China trade issues for now. Additionally, Trump can still impose a 25% tariff. Besides, the increase in job vacancies shows that the US economy may

Holding SOL in this round has cost me at least $1 million. Looking back, it really feels helpless...
Yesterday morning I opened a coin-margined long position, but when I woke up in the morning I saw a "door" chart pattern... Forget it, I won't talk about it 😭
From the weekly chart level, we've reached the supply zone, which is also the neckline of this wave. But from a broader perspective, the adjustment still isn't in place yet. SOL once rose thanks to MEME tokens, but now the lack of liquidity and market funds in the secondary market has caused MEMEs to lose liquidity, so naturally SOL's ad

12.9
BTC
From the perspective of macro market sentiment, things are still acceptable, with no major pessimism. The rest will depend on the interest rate meeting in the early hours of Thursday. Looking at the market heatmap and the inflow of on-chain funds, it is evident that traditional crypto market funds are gradually drying up, and we still rely on traditional financial institutions. Liquidity in the secondary market is very weak, leading to a gradual narrowing of price fluctuations and a need for directional choice. As mentioned in the past two days, any immediate rebound will not be stron

12.8
December 11
The Federal Reserve will announce its latest interest rate decision and Summary of Economic Projections.
BTC
Market sentiment has been relatively stable these past few days; at least there hasn't been a crash during the lowest liquidity period. Currently, investors are most concerned about the Fed's monetary policy on December 11. A rate cut in December is highly probable, and even Powell may not be able to stop it. However, the dot plot and Powell's speech remain points of concern. The market is not much different from last week, and there is no negative data; the expectation

12.2
The main reason for yesterday's decline seems to be related to China's continued crackdown on cryptocurrencies and the rising interest rates in Japan. The former is manageable and can be gotten used to, but the latter is the biggest trouble right now, especially since Japan's real interest rates have already risen. Additionally, today, Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda hinted at weighing the pros and cons of raising interest rates and indicated that they would appropriately increase the policy rate when conditions are right.
The Japanese yen has long served as the world's

11.27
The beautiful country has extended the tariff exemptions on 178 Chinese items from 301 tariffs until November 10, 2026. The US stock market is closed on Thanksgiving Thursday, and on Black Friday, it will close early. The focus remains on the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, followed by tariffs and liquidity.
BTC
This week's weekly review mentioned that there is rebound space on the daily chart. After a few days, there has indeed been a relatively good rebound. At the current position, there is still space above the daily level, but it is important to note that the position of

11.26
BTC
A couple of days ago, I mentioned that we should pay attention to the short-term stop-loss position for Bitcoin at this level, focusing on its right-side fluctuations. Currently, it seems to be fluctuating on the right side. Yesterday, I also pointed out that there is still room above at the daily level, and it remains the same now; the daily level still has room, but it depends on whether it can continue at this four-hour position. If it does not break below 86000 during the day, it will continue to fluctuate upwards around the upper range. Remember, this is a rebound, not a reversa

11.25
Last Friday, Williams announced his support for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates in December. On Monday, Waller and Daly also spoke in support of the Federal Reserve cutting rates in December. Waller is not worth mentioning since he is originally a Trump appointee. Now that Daly also supports the rate cut, it’s better news for the market, especially since this decline started with Powell's announcement of no rate cut in December, compounded by the U.S. government shutdown. Now that the shutdown has ended, liquidity is gradually returning.
The key point is that the dovish sup

11.24
November 24
Grayscale is set to launch its first Dogecoin ETF on November 24.
November 25
The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the September retail sales month-on-month and the U.S. September PPI on Tuesday.
November 26
The United States will announce the initial jobless claims for the week ending November 22 on Wednesday.
November 27
The Federal Reserve will release the Beige Book on the economic conditions this Thursday.
BTC
Thursday and Friday are Thanksgiving and Black Friday. The US stock market is closed on Thursday, and it will only be open for half a day on Friday. Th

11.22
The probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates in December has risen to around 71% according to CME.
BTC
Bitcoin has now reached a very important support key area between 78500 and 86400. As long as it doesn't break, I personally believe there will be a small rebound. Therefore, if you are optimistic about this position moving forward, you can gradually enter a little bit. However, even if it moves upward from this position, it is only a rebound, not a reversal. From a technical perspective, this position has not completely stopped falling, but a rebound is needed to m