March 19 (Thursday) 2:00 AM - Federal Reserve Interest Rate Decision to be Announced

Previous: 3.75% Forecast: 3.75%

The market has 100% priced in that this meeting will neither raise nor cut rates, with the benchmark rate remaining unchanged at 3.50%-3.75%; however, the true epicenter lies in the subsequent "dot plot" and Powell's speech. Influenced by stagflation risks triggered by Middle East geopolitical tensions, this meeting will likely release "hawkish" signals.

The real market dynamics are not about the rate change itself, but rather how the Federal Reserve views "a future disrupted by war."

Considering recent economic data and geopolitical situations comprehensively, it is expected that Fed Chair Powell's remarks and the dot plot released this time will lean "hawkish" (i.e., inclined toward tightening monetary policy and restraining inflation).

Specific hawkish indicators may include: significantly raising 2026 PCE inflation expectations, lowering GDP growth forecasts, dot plot showing only one or zero rate cuts within the year, and Powell emphasizing attention to inflation risks rather than economic slowdown.

★ Impact Analysis on BTC Price Movement:
Over the past two weeks, there has been a gradual uptick in small steps, with market sentiment moderating ahead of the rate decision. Considering current market positioning and technical levels, BTC price may experience a slight bounce initially after the decision is announced, followed by downward pressure and pullback. From a larger perspective, there are no reversal signals, only a rebound recovery after oversold conditions. Watch for strong resistance near 80K; even if reached, it will likely decline again and continue consolidating.