#钱包社交转型 The shift of Farcaster from social media to Wallet essentially reflects a fact that has been rigorously validated by data: the market cap of Web3 social is far lower than imagined.

The data speaks for itself. By mid-2024, the MAU peaked at nearly 80,000, but by the second half of 2025, it had dropped to less than 20,000—this isn’t volatility, it’s a trend. The real heart-wrenching comparison comes from Wiimee's experiment: the exposure of content for a general audience over four days surpassed that of four years of content in the crypto circle by two times. What does this indicate? It indicates that Crypto Twitter itself is just a self-circulating little bubble.

The failure of Farcaster does not lie in the quality of the product, but rather in the fundamental structural barriers encountered by social products—X's network effect is nearly unbreakable. The highly homogeneous user pool of crypto-native users, VCs, and Builders can never support a second social network. The content is highly internally looped, and the monetization of creators and user retention cannot form positive feedback, resulting in a growth trap.

In contrast, the performance of the Wallet module shows significantly better growth slope, usage frequency, and retention. This is not a coincidence—Wallet corresponds to the real on-chain rigid demands: transfer, trading, and signing. These demands will not fluctuate in interest based on whether they are "decentralized"; they are instrumentally rational.

Compared to "giving up on ideals," this feels more like a pragmatic decision. Socializing is the icing on the cake; the Wallet is the driving force. If users stay for the tools first, there will be space for social features to exist.

In the face of numbers, all romance is a luxury.