#比特币价格预测 The RSI has once again fallen below the oversold 30 signal, and this is the fifth time. Historical data shows that the first four times triggered subsequent bullish trends. If this pattern continues, the $170,000 target within three months is not just wishful thinking.

The key lies in the changes in on-chain capital. The recent sustained sell-off started from the October high of $126,080 and stabilized around $84,000 in mid-November. During this process, tracking the movement of large-volume chips is important—whether whales are accumulating in the bottom range will largely determine the certainty of a rebound.

Another noteworthy signal is the signs of institutional entry. The trajectory of ETF capital flows has indeed shown an extremely optimistic trend. The participation of major brokerages indicates that institutional-level capital pools are opening up. If ETF capital inflows reach record levels in 2026, the support for the price bottom will be very strong.

However, the current rebound still requires waiting for the true dissipation of negative factors—the four-year cycle's expected selling pressure and previous market crash psychology are still present in the market. In the short term, it is crucial to observe the flow of large contract orders and the net outflows from exchanges. If sustained institutional-level net inflows are detected, the credibility of this upward target will be greatly enhanced.