#预测市场 Polymarket's data continues to refresh my understanding. The probability of Bitcoin surpassing 100,000 within the year has dropped from a high level to 11%. What is driving this shift? Narrowing time windows is one factor, but more importantly, the actual market sentiment—32% for the 95,000 prediction and 24% for the probability of dropping below 80,000—indicates that market expectations for sideways movement and corrections are increasing.

The advantage of these prediction market data lies in their real incentives and constraints. Compared to traditional polls, where lying incurs an economic cost, this mechanism makes price signals more truthful than public opinion. The changing probabilities for Federal Reserve chair nominations also confirm this—Hasset's nomination probability surged to 56%, while Waller's dropped from a previous high to 21%. Such rapid adjustments reflect real-time digestion of information.

For on-chain tracking, fluctuations in prediction market probabilities often precede movements of large funds. When these probabilities change dramatically in the short term, it’s worth reviewing recent activity from whale addresses on-chain and the capital flows on major exchanges—these two often show some degree of correlation. Approaching from this perspective allows for earlier detection of potential turning points than simply watching price trends.