Gate Research Institute: Solana and Ethereum Lead Ecosystem Development, Market Size Continues to Expand | December 2025 Web3 On-Chain Data Analysis

On-Chain Data Summary

Overview of On-Chain Activity and Capital Flows

To accurately assess the real usage of the blockchain ecosystem, this section analyzes several key on-chain activity indicators, including daily transaction count, Gas fees, active addresses, and cross-chain bridge net flows, covering multiple dimensions such as user behavior, network usage intensity, and asset liquidity. Compared to merely observing capital inflows and outflows, these native on-chain data provide a more comprehensive reflection of the fundamental changes in the public chain ecosystem, helping to determine whether capital flows are accompanied by actual usage demand and user growth, thereby identifying networks with sustainable development foundations.

Transaction Count Analysis: Solana fluctuates at high levels, Base and mainstream L2s maintain stable structures

According to Artemis data, the on-chain transaction activity of major public chains in December generally remained at high levels with oscillations. Despite the market entering a year-end consolidation phase, the usage intensity of core public chains did not show a significant decline, indicating that on-chain interactions still have basic support. Among them, Solana remained at an absolute high throughout the month, with an average of about 60 million to 80 million transactions per day. Although there were phased declines mid-month and at month-end, overall fluctuations were limited, reflecting that its high-frequency applications and active user base provide stable support for transaction counts. Even during market cooling, on-chain usage remained resilient.【1】

For Base, the on-chain transaction count in December mainly ranged between 10 million and 13 million, with a sideways consolidation trend throughout the month, showing no clear signs of expansion, but maintaining a relatively stable structure, indicating that its social and lightweight application ecosystem continues to provide steady daily interaction demand. In comparison, Arbitrum’s transaction count in December was more oscillatory, mostly between 2 million and 3.5 million, with a temporary dip mid-month followed by a rebound, but the rebound lacked sustainability, indicating its ecosystem activity maintained operation but had not entered a clear expansion phase.

Overall, the transaction count structure in December continued the characteristics of “high-performance public chain dominance and Layer2 differentiation”: Solana remains the core carrier of on-chain traffic, Base maintains stable mid-range capacity, and Arbitrum is closer to a “stable but non-expanding” operational state. Against the backdrop of slowing market momentum at year-end, the layered on-chain activity structure remains clear, and short-term fluctuations are insufficient to alter the existing usage positioning and competitive landscape of each public chain.

Active Address Analysis: Solana maintains leadership, Arbitrum continues low-level oscillation

According to Artemis data, the active addresses of major public chains in December show clear differentiation. Overall user activity did not experience a systemic decline, but year-end cautious sentiment limited expansion momentum. High-performance public chains and some application-oriented chains remained relatively stable, while some Layer2 solutions maintained low-level oscillations.【2】

Solana continued to lead significantly in active address scale, with daily active addresses stable around 2.5 million to 3.5 million, with limited fluctuations throughout the month. High-frequency applications and transaction scenarios continuously supported user engagement. Polygon PoS active addresses mostly ranged from 800,000 to 1.5 million, with some phases of growth but mainly oscillating within this range. In contrast, Arbitrum’s active addresses have been persistently low, around 120,000 to 200,000, with limited recovery and no clear signs of warming. Ethereum and Bitcoin’s active addresses remained stable overall, continuing to serve as settlement layers and value-carrying networks.

In summary, the on-chain active address structure in December was clearly layered: Solana dominated high-frequency interactions, Polygon PoS and Base maintained mid-range stability, while Arbitrum remained oscillatory at low levels. The differentiation within the Layer2 ecosystem further intensified at year-end.

On-Chain Fee Revenue Analysis: Ethereum and Solana remain top, Base and Arbitrum show increased volatility

According to Artemis data, the overall on-chain fee income of major public chains in December exhibited oscillations, with high-value main chains remaining relatively stable, while mid- and lower-tier chains experienced more significant fluctuations. Against the backdrop of slowed market trading at year-end, fee income did not show a trend of expansion, mainly driven by episodic events.【3】

Ethereum and Solana continued to rank at the top in fee income. Ethereum’s daily fees roughly ranged from $300,000 to $700,000, fluctuating with DeFi operations and high-value contract interactions, remaining a core indicator of on-chain economic activity; Solana’s fees were relatively stable, mainly between $500,000 and $800,000, with high-frequency trading and application interactions providing steady revenue.

In contrast, Base and Arbitrum’s fee income was more volatile. Base’s monthly fees mostly oscillated between $50,000 and $150,000, with occasional short-term surges but limited sustainability; Arbitrum’s fees remained generally low, with pulse-like rebounds that quickly receded. Overall, the fee structure in December was clearly layered, with core value capture still concentrated on Ethereum and Solana, while other chains had yet to form stable growth momentum.

Public Chain Capital Flows Diverge: Capital flows back to settlement layers, trading networks absorb risk appetite

According to Artemis data, the capital flows of public chains over the past month show a clear structural divergence. Overall, there was no sign of widespread risk expansion, but driven by different risk preferences, capital flowed into the safer core settlement layer and more capital-efficient trading networks; meanwhile, some traditional Layer2s and high-valuation ecosystems faced ongoing net outflows.【4】

From the inflow perspective, Ethereum, Hyperliquid, and Polygon PoS ranked among the top in net inflows over the past month, significantly higher than other chains. Among them, Ethereum experienced the largest net inflow, reflecting that in an environment where market direction is still uncertain and volatility is converging, capital preferentially flows back into the most liquid, asset-carrying, and settlement-capable underlying networks for cross-cycle positioning and reallocation; Hyperliquid’s continuous net inflow indicates that trading-capital has not exited the market but is more inclined to enter high-efficiency, fast-turnover trading networks; capital inflow into Polygon PoS was relatively moderate, favoring stable application and daily interaction scenarios.

On the outflow side, the pressure was mainly concentrated on Arbitrum, with a net outflow significantly leading other chains over the past month, becoming the main recipient of capital outflows. Combining the inflow structure, some funds flowing out of Arbitrum may be migrating to Hyperliquid and other networks with higher trading efficiency and shorter cycles. Additionally, networks like Base and Avalanche also recorded varying degrees of net outflows, indicating that within Layer2 and application chains, capital is undergoing re-selection rather than simple risk withdrawal.

Overall, the current capital flow of public chains aligns more with the “risk preference divergence and parallel allocation” feature. On one hand, more stable funds flow back to core settlement layers represented by Ethereum, for cross-cycle asset and position management; on the other hand, higher-risk-capable funds withdraw from some traditional execution environments and concentrate on networks like Hyperliquid with stronger trading attributes and higher capital efficiency. The market has entered a phase of structural rotation and risk re-pricing, with capital allocation shifting from single narratives to more refined choices based on network functions and capital efficiency.

Key Bitcoin Indicators Analysis

December saw a divergence in macro and risk asset performance, with stocks strengthening while the overall crypto market faced pressure. Employment data signaled differentiation, and the Fed maintained a cautious stance on policy. Against this backdrop, BTC prices entered a consolidation phase, with short-term stabilization but upward momentum still needing validation, depending on the chip structure and cost support.

In this context, on-chain data from cost distribution, unrealized loss supply, and holder structure all send consistent signals: BTC still operates above its core cost zones, with the main trend intact, but the dense chip zones above exert short-term resistance; rising unrealized loss supply indicates ongoing short-term sentiment clearing; meanwhile, selling pressure is mainly concentrated among short-term holders, while long-term chips remain relatively stable, marking a phase of transition from a bullish breakout to consolidation and rebalancing.

BTC high-level chip loosening, overhead digestion pressure in cost-dense zones

According to Glassnode data, the BTC cost distribution heatmap shows that during the recent decline from high levels, the high-cost chips above have begun to weaken to some extent, but no concentrated downward shift has occurred. Prices mainly operate within recent cost-dense zones, without triggering large-scale migration of chips to lower levels, indicating that high-level holders are mainly enduring retracements and waiting for recovery. Market sentiment has shifted from optimistic to more cautious and neutral.【5】

Structurally, multiple historical cost bands still exist below current prices, with continuous and stable chip distribution, indicating that mid- and low-level holders still hold cost advantages, providing potential support for prices. No obvious “chip vacuum zones” have appeared in the heatmap, suggesting that short-term corrections are more about high-level profit-taking and pressure release rather than trend-breaking.

Overall, BTC has shown a “high-level chip digestion and continued support below” rebalancing pattern in the past month. Short-term upward momentum is constrained by cost pressure, and the market is more likely to oscillate within a range and redistribute chips; but as long as the mid-term cost structure remains unbroken, the medium-term upward trend remains intact, leaning toward healthy correction rather than trend reversal.

BTC unrealized loss supply rises but remains controlled, market enters stress testing phase

According to Glassnode data, the unrealized loss supply (7-day moving average) indicator for BTC has increased significantly over the past month as prices declined from highs, indicating that some short-term and chasing chips are entering the unrealized loss zone, increasing market pressure. However, in absolute terms, current unrealized loss supply remains well below peaks seen during deep corrections or bear markets, not reaching systemic panic levels, mainly reflecting late-stage upward pressure testing and sentiment cooling.【6】

Historically, rapid increases in unrealized loss supply often correspond to initial price corrections or trend shifts, while true trend-downs tend to sustain high unrealized loss levels for extended periods. The current indicator has expanded but remains limited in persistence, suggesting that loss chips have not yet formed large-scale selling pressure, and the market still mainly endures and waits for recovery.

Overall, the rise in BTC unrealized loss supply reflects a short-term contraction in risk appetite and a shift from optimism to caution, but signs of structural deterioration are not yet evident. Before prices further break below key mid-term cost zones, this indicator is more indicative of a retracement and rebalancing within a bull market. Future focus should be on whether unrealized loss supply continues to expand and stay high; a rapid decline would confirm an end to correction, while continued rise could lead to deeper oscillation and re-pricing.

BTC short-term holder unrealized losses expand, long-cycle chips remain profitable

According to Glassnode data, the long-term and short-term holder profit/loss supply ratio (7-day moving average) over the past month shows that as prices declined from highs, the proportion of short-term holders (STH) in loss increased significantly, indicating that recent inflows of funds are gradually entering the unrealized loss zone, reducing short-term risk tolerance, and increasing market pressure mainly on short-term chips. This change typically occurs during retracement phases after an upswing, reflecting that chasing high funds are digesting volatility rather than engaging in full-scale selling.【7】

Structurally, long-term holders (LTH) still predominantly remain profitable, with loss proportions at low levels historically, indicating that core chips have not significantly loosened due to short-term corrections. Historical experience suggests that only when LTHs shift substantially into loss zones does a trend reversal or bear market confirmation usually occur; the current structure remains far from that scenario.

Overall, BTC’s profit/loss distribution currently exhibits typical bull market correction features: short-term losses expand, leading to consolidation and rebalancing, but long-term chips remain stable, supporting the resilience of the medium-term trend. If prices stabilize and rebound, short-term losses can quickly converge and recover; if the correction continues and extends into long-term cost zones, structural risks may further escalate.

Popular Projects and Token Dynamics

On-chain data indicate that capital and users are gradually concentrating into ecosystems with active interaction and application depth, while projects with topicality and technological innovation are becoming new focal points for capital chasing. This article will focus on recently prominent projects and tokens, analyzing their underlying logic and potential impact.

Popular Projects Data Overview

BSC Prediction Markets

With Predict Fun and Probable launched successively, three prediction market platforms including Opinion have formed within the BSC network, all under similar capital and resource frameworks. Currently, the competition among BSC prediction markets leans more toward parallel exploration within the same ecosystem rather than substitution or clearing of a single platform, with different projects adopting differentiated paths in fee structures, incentive mechanisms, and user targeting.【8】

In terms of overall scale, since their launch in late October, BSC prediction markets have seen cumulative nominal trading volume steadily rise, approaching $6.5 billion by the end of December. This trend indicates that the sector has gradually formed sustained trading demand within the BSC ecosystem, rather than relying on episodic event-driven surges.

Analyzing the contribution structure of trading volume, the market is highly concentrated in Opinion. Whether in cumulative or daily trading volume, Opinion has maintained a long-term share of over 95%, serving as the core engine driving overall scale expansion. Daily trading volumes have repeatedly reached active trading days of $100–$300 million; in contrast, Predict Fun and Probable only started to appear in late December, with transaction volumes still relatively small, contributing marginally to the overall market size.

From the competitive perspective, the current BSC prediction market resembles a “single main platform with scaled operation, while other platforms are in mechanism verification and user testing phases.” Opinion benefits from low fees and mature liquidity, forming a high-turnover, high-stickiness trading loop; Predict Fun adopts a relatively aggressive mechanism design but still lags in transaction scale and user expansion; Probable enters the market through zero fees and points incentives, mainly reflecting early participation and trial operation.

It is important to emphasize that this internal structure does not mean the competition pattern is fixed. On one hand, new platforms are still in early stages, with trading depth and product features not fully developed; on the other hand, the overall BSC prediction market remains in expansion, with current data more reflecting the “scale formation period” rather than mature competition. Future changes depend on how new platforms perform in liquidity incentives, user retention, and product differentiation.

Popular Tokens Data Overview

$BEAT

Audiera (BEAT) is a Web3 extension of the classic music and dance game IP “Audition,” targeting a global user base of over 600 million, integrating AI and blockchain technology to build an immersive entertainment ecosystem centered on music creation, AI idol interaction, NFT minting, and motion-sensing fitness. Its product forms include mobile games, mini-apps, and AI-driven creative studios, positioning as a “high interactivity + strong content creation” entertainment Web3 project.

According to CoinGecko data, $BEAT experienced a peak increase of over 300% in December. This rally was not triggered by a single fundamental positive but was driven by capital rotation from low-volatility mainstream assets to mid- and small-cap, highly elastic targets in a choppy market environment. BEAT’s early chip structure was relatively healthy, with no sustained volume dumps before the rise, and liquidity and order book depth improved simultaneously, providing good trading conditions for trend funds.【9】

On the project level, BEAT has not shown obvious negative events or deterioration signals recently. Market pricing mainly reflects its trading attributes and short-term elasticity expectations. The combination of “no obvious fundamental drag + improved trading structure” makes it more likely to be favored by short-term and trend funds during consolidation, forming a phased rally. As the price rises rapidly, discussion in the crypto community and media about BEAT’s performance, short-term liquidity, and whether there is a second wave of rally has increased significantly. Social media sentiment acts as an amplifier after major funds start, accelerating price volatility and high-level turnover.

Overall, $BEAT ’s recent performance is a typical “fundamental rotation + trading structure improvement + social sentiment amplification” rally. Its strength mainly results from resonance between market environment and trading attributes rather than fundamental changes. The future trend will still depend heavily on trading volume changes and key price levels.

Summary

In December 2025, the overall public chain ecosystem showed characteristics of “steady activity slowdown and deepening structural differentiation.” Core high-performance public chains and settlement layers remained stable, with Solana continuing to dominate in transaction frequency and user activity, and Ethereum maintaining its position as the on-chain settlement hub in terms of fee contribution and capital allocation; in contrast, the differentiation within Layer2 further intensified, with Base remaining relatively resilient, while Arbitrum faced significant pressure in transaction activity, fee income, and capital flows. Overall, the market at year-end did not enter a full expansion cycle; capital and user behavior became more rational, and competition among public chains shifted from narrative-driven to long-term selection based on functional positioning, capital efficiency, and real usage scenarios.

On Bitcoin, the recent price decline has loosened high-level chips and entered a turnover phase, forming oscillation and digestion structures above cost-dense zones. Short-term momentum has shifted from strength to pressure. Although unrealized loss supply has increased, it remains concentrated among short-term holders, while long-term chips stay profitable, preserving the medium-term bull market framework. The market is more akin to a “retracement—rebalancing—recovery” transition zone, with future direction depending on the support strength of lower cost zones and whether sentiment cooling can lead to renewed upward momentum.

At the project and token level, BSC prediction markets, after multiple platforms launched in parallel, are in an internal exploration phase, with overall nominal trading volume continuously expanding toward $6.5 billion, but liquidity is highly concentrated in Opinion. New platforms are still in mechanism verification and user cultivation stages, with the competition pattern yet to be finalized. Tokens like $BEAT , driven by capital rotation and trading structure improvements in a choppy market, experienced a temporary surge close to 300%, mainly driven by high-elasticity trading attributes and sentiment amplification. Overall, the market remains characterized by structural expansion and trading-driven activity, with a trend phase awaiting new macro or on-chain catalysts for confirmation.
References:

1. Artemis, https://app.artemisanalytics.com/chains
2. Artemis, https://app.artemisanalytics.com/chains
3. Artemis, https://app.artemisanalytics.com/chains
4. Artemis, https://app.artemisanalytics.com/flows
5. Glassnode, https://studio.glassnode.com/charts/indicators.CostBasisDistributionHeatmap?a=BTC&period=5y
6. Glassnode, https://studio.glassnode.com/charts/supply.LossSum?a=BTC&chartStyle=column&s=1485388800&u=1765929600&zoom=
7. Glassnode, https://studio.glassnode.com/charts/supply.LthSthProfitLossRelative?a=BTC&mAvg=7&s=1472860800&u=1765929600&zoom=
8. Dune, https://dune.com/defioasis/prediction-market-wars-on-bsc
9. CoinGecko, https://www.coingecko.com/coins/audiera

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