Institutions are voting with real money: Tom Lee predicts Ethereum will surge to $9,000 by 2026

Renowned analyst and co-founder of Fundstrat Global Advisors Tom Lee made a bold prediction in a recent CNBC interview: Ethereum’s price is expected to reach the $7,000 to $9,000 range by early 2026, representing over 150% potential upside from current levels. He believes this assessment is not based on short-term momentum but stems from long-term structural demand driven by asset tokenization, improved settlement efficiency, and global institutional adoption. Meanwhile, the world’s largest Ethereum holding company, BitMine, staked $1 billion worth of ETH within two days. This rare large-scale staking behavior is interpreted by the market as a firm vote of confidence in Ethereum’s long-term value by institutions. Currently, Ethereum trades around $2,940, with technical indicators showing it is at a critical decision point.

Tom Lee’s Macro Narrative: Why the Golden Age of Ethereum Has Just Begun

The core logic of Tom Lee’s prediction completely breaks away from the typical cyclical hype narratives in the crypto market. In his CNBC interview, he characterized recent market volatility—particularly the liquidity stress event in October 2025—as a “short-term disturbance that market participants need weeks to digest,” rather than a fundamental trend disruption. This perspective of separating short-term fluctuations from long-term trends is typical of traditional macro analysts and suggests that the driving forces behind Ethereum’s future have shifted.

Lee’s key pillar of argument is “tokenization.” He explicitly states that the traditional financial world is focusing on blockchain-based tokenization of real-world assets (RWA), motivated by efficiency gains rather than pure speculation. Major global financial institutions are actively exploring blockchain-based clearing and settlement systems, and Ethereum, with its mature development ecosystem, extensive network effects, and high security, has become the preferred infrastructure for this historic transition. This is no longer just conceptual; it is an ongoing, practically driven process propelled by top-tier capital.

This analytical framework aligns with recent in-depth market research reports. They point out that the fundamental inflection point for the crypto market in 2025 is structural rather than price-based, with capital shifting from retail dominance to institutional dominance. As Ethereum’s demand transitions from “community beta” to being driven by real financial applications, its valuation support will become more stable and predictable. Lee believes that this demand, linked to real-world use cases, is more stable than purely bullish cycles and is the fundamental reason Ethereum can achieve multiple growth within the next one to two years.

$1 Billion Bet: What Signals Does BitMine’s Massive Staking Reveal?

If Tom Lee’s prediction provides a theoretical blueprint, then BitMine’s actions are a construction plan drawn with real money. According to data from on-chain analysis platform Lookonchain, this global largest Ethereum holder staked 342,560 ETH within just two days, worth approximately $1 billion at the time. This move is not only one of the largest corporate staking actions in recent years but also conveys several market-shaking signals.

First, it marks a fundamental shift in BitMine’s holding strategy—from passive holding to active participation in network security and earning rewards. According to its public filings, BitMine holds over 4 million ETH, accounting for about 3.4% of Ethereum’s circulating supply. Activating such a massive asset from a “dormant” state indicates that the company is deeply tying its substantial financial interests to Ethereum’s long-term security and stability. This is not a short-term trade but a strategic infrastructure investment.

Second, this staking is linked to BitMine’s “Made in USA Validator Network” plan. The company has carefully evaluated and selected three institutional-grade staking service providers for pilot testing, focusing on security, operational stability, and reward performance. This rigorous process indicates that institutional behavior is driving the staking service toward specialization and compliance. BitMine plans to fully launch this network in early 2026 after evaluating the pilot results, aiming to build a native Ethereum staking platform serving long-term value creation. This “learning-by-doing” and steady progress model is typical of institutional capital’s deep involvement in emerging fields.

Key Data on BitMine’s Ethereum Holdings and Staking

• Total holdings: over 4,000,000 ETH
• Recent staking amount: 342,560 ETH (about $1 billion)
• Holding proportion: approximately 3.4% of Ethereum’s circulating supply
• Strategy shift: from passive treasury holding to active staking for rewards and network security
• Annualized potential yield: at current approx. 3.12%, full staking could generate over 125,000 ETH annually (about $37 million)

Technical Outlook: What Stage Is Ethereum’s Price Currently At?

Amid the grand narrative and institutional capital deployment, Ethereum’s short-term price trend shows a cautious balance. Currently, ETH trades around $2,940, with daily trading volume above $7.4 billion, and its market cap remains the second-largest globally. Despite overall market sentiment being cautious, Ethereum demonstrates resilience at key technical levels.

Analysis of the 4-hour chart indicates ETH is in a critical consolidation zone. Above, the $3,300 to $3,350 resistance zone has been tested multiple times without success. Below, strong support is seen near $2,775, with buy orders consistently entering around this level. This battle between bulls and bears results in a lack of clear directional momentum for now.

Key moving averages provide further clues. The price is slightly below the 50-day and 100-day exponential moving averages, but the gap between them is narrowing, often a sign of decreasing downside momentum. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovers near the neutral 50 level, indicating the market is neither overbought nor oversold, maintaining a relatively balanced state. This technical structure aligns with Tom Lee’s view of a “recovery phase rather than a collapse,” as the market digests previous volatility and awaits catalysts to break the stalemate.

From Bitcoin to Ethereum: The Paradigm Shift in Institutional Capital Logic

Understanding Ethereum’s current opportunities requires placing it within the broader context of institutional capital flows. For a long time, Bitcoin, with its clear narrative as “digital gold,” has been the preferred entry point for institutions into crypto. Banks like Standard Chartered have forecast that, driven by spot ETFs and corporate treasury purchases, Bitcoin will hit new highs in late 2025. However, market expectations are evolving; Standard Chartered later lowered its 2025 year-end target for Bitcoin to $100,000 but reaffirmed a long-term bullish view of $500,000 by 2030. This reflects a more complex and long-term institutional outlook on Bitcoin.

Meanwhile, the logic of institutional allocation in crypto is undergoing profound change. Research indicates that 2025 marks a shift from “narrative-driven, sentiment-based pricing” to “liquidity-driven, macroeconomic pricing.” As marginal buyers, institutions base their decisions more on asset allocation, risk budgets, and sensitivity to macro interest rates rather than short-term price movements. Under this new paradigm, Ethereum’s unique value begins to stand out: it is no longer just an investable asset but a productive infrastructure capable of generating cash flows (via staking, DeFi), carrying real assets (through RWA), and serving as a new financial settlement layer.

BitMine’s case is highly representative. As a “Bitcoin treasury” company, it has continued to increase its Ethereum holdings during market calm periods and has initiated large-scale staking. This behavior transcends simple arbitrage speculation; it is an embodiment of a new treasury asset management model—transforming some crypto reserves from mere store of value into productive capital capable of generating steady income. If more listed companies and institutional funds adopt this model, it could create sustained and stable buying and locking-in demand for Ethereum, fundamentally reshaping its supply-demand structure.

Strategic Insights: Balancing Structural Opportunities and Short-term Fluctuations

For investors, the current market offers a window to position between structural trends and short-term volatility. Tom Lee’s forecast and BitMine’s actions outline a clear long-term logic, but this does not mean the path will be smooth. Macroeconomic factors such as Federal Reserve policies, inflation expectations, and the dollar’s trend will continue to significantly impact all risk assets, including Ethereum.

In the short term, traders should closely monitor the key technical levels mentioned above. A volume breakout above $3,000 and a sustained hold could target $3,170, then challenge the critical resistance zone at $3,300–$3,320. Conversely, a break below the strong support at $2,775 could open the downside, testing the $2,620 area. Until a clear direction emerges, range-bound strategies or low-leverage swing trading may be more appropriate.

Long-term investors need to answer a fundamental question: do they believe asset tokenization and decentralized finance are the key directions for the evolution of financial infrastructure over the next decade? If yes, then Ethereum, as a leader in this field, with its network utility, developer activity, and institutional adoption, will serve as more important valuation anchors than short-term price swings. Dollar-cost averaging or phased buying at key support levels could be effective ways to participate in this long-term narrative while managing short-term risks.

Ultimately, the market is witnessing a watershed moment: Ethereum is evolving from an “upgraded version of a cryptocurrency” into the “next-generation global settlement layer.” Institutional involvement—whether through large direct holdings and staking like BitMine or future Ethereum spot ETFs—injects unprecedented momentum and stability into this evolution. Tom Lee’s $9,000 target may well be a bold pricing attempt for this future landscape.