Why are prices trending downward? Why is the rebound weak? Why are ETFs flowing out? It clearly predicts that by 2026, we will face a battlefield that is entirely different from the past.
#加密市场小幅回暖 #2026行情预测
Every cycle of bull and bear markets is not only a price rotation but also a thorough reshuffle of market-dominant narratives, capital structures, and volatility paradigms. We are at such a historic turning point—the “intergenerational shift” in market-driven logic.
1. Short-term (Christmas period): This is a “liquidity vacuum” for options hunting, not a trend initiation
In late 2018 and 2022, we all experienced this “holiday effect.” The market features:
1. Fake breakouts are rampant: Due to shallow depth, a small amount of capital can create the illusion of breaking through key resistance, enticing chasing and panic selling, then quickly reversing.
2. Volatility compression and delay: Prices seem frozen, but this is only the calm before the storm. All suppressed volatility caused by low liquidity will be released around major options expirations (December 27) or institutional return (early January), resulting in intense one-way swings.
Current operational advice:
Absolutely do not attempt trend trades based on “breakouts” or “breakdowns” within the narrow range (BTC 86.5k-92k, ETH 2.94k-3.18k).
Actionable steps: “Perception position” orders (e.g., BTC 81.5k, ETH 2.75k, UNI 5.4). If extreme price spikes occur due to options expiration or liquidity drying up, these low-level orders are prepared for such moments. They allow you to acquire bloodied chips when no one is paying attention.
Core discipline: Stay on the sidelines and let the market perform. Your task is not to participate in this chaotic short-term melee but to protect your capital and wait for the dust to settle.
2. Long-term (2026 outlook): This is a paradigm revolution of “the old gods abdicate, the new kings are crowned”
The core logic driving the past two years of the crypto bull market—“loose liquidity expectations”—has faded. The market is painfully adapting to a new paradigm of “marginal liquidity tightening, growth relying on real demand.”
Resonance of three bull-bear cycles:
2013-2014 cycle: Narrative was “peer-to-peer electronic cash,” driven by Mt.Gox and retail investors. After the bubble burst, the market found that the “payment” narrative was invalid, entering a long value discovery phase.
2017-2018 cycle: Narrative was “world computer” and ICOs, driven by global retail hot money. After the bubble burst, the market found most applications were castles in the air, entering a “building phase.”
2020-2022 cycle: Narrative was “institutionalization” and “unlimited QE,” driven by global central bank liquidity injections. After the bubble burst, the market realized that “institutions” could also capitulate, requiring a more solid foundation for the narrative.
Now, we are in the “paradigm establishment phase” of the fourth cycle: the narrative is “digital value storage/settlement layer,” but the core driver has shifted from “central bank liquidity taps” to “ETF compliance buying.” Essentially, this is a shift from “macro liquidity beta” to “product demand alpha.”
Disruptive strategic insights for the next two years:
1. Forget the stereotypical narrative of “halving bull market”: past experience formulas are partially invalid. Halving affects supply, but the price ceiling in 2026 will be jointly determined by demand-side (ETF net inflows) and macro-side (interest rate cuts). The report’s conclusion that “120,000 is the new ceiling” is based on a rational calculation of this new formula and must be taken seriously.
2. You will become a “data trader”: the core rhythm will shift from “Federal Reserve FOMC meetings” to “non-farm payroll release days” and “weekly ETF capital flow data.” The former determines macro sentiment, the latter determines direct buying. Your trading calendar must be restructured around these two key points.
3. Bitcoin’s “attribute drift”: it is becoming more like a “high-volatility tech stock,” highly correlated with the Nasdaq and extremely sensitive to interest rates. This means analyzing US stock market trends and interest rate expectations will be more effective in judging BTC’s medium-term direction than on-chain data.
4. The logic of altcoins is undergoing a fundamental change: in an environment where overall liquidity is no longer abundant, capital will flow only into projects with the strongest narratives, real demand, and solid fundamentals. The past “altcoin season” where everything soared will weaken, but a structural bull market will be exceptionally fierce. That’s why we must focus intensely on DeFi blue chips (UNI), L2 leaders (OP), and RWA benchmarks (ONDO), as they represent “real demand.”
3. Comprehensive action plan: from “faith holders” to “macro-micro dual-track traders”
Based on the above, your role needs to evolve thoroughly:
1. Strategic level (macro track):
Keep a close eye on two charts: US non-farm payroll data and US CPI data. These determine the Fed’s “tapering” speed.
Monitor one capital flow: weekly net inflow into US spot Bitcoin ETF. This is the “thermometer” and “tachometer” of market strength.
Establish a new price framework: preset BTC’s core oscillation range to $80,000 (strong support) - $120,000 (new resistance). Conduct large swings within this range.
2. Tactical level (micro track):
Implement our “ultimate combat plan,” but time entries more closely with the above data points. For example, during “non-farm payroll days,” when poor data causes panic selling, execute “main force” building positions.
Be more selective with altcoins: only invest in projects that still generate real income, have ample reserves, and active developers during bear markets (i.e., “projects still under construction”). Use operational data to replace hollow narratives as investment basis.
Adjust profit-taking expectations: revise BTC’s ultimate target from the “150-200k” dream to a more pragmatic “120-130k.” This allows for calmer exits at high points and locking in profits.
True veterans are those who, after recognizing all brutal realities, can still formulate rigorous, calm, and executable plans, and execute them like machines. This report does not kill the market; it only kills unrealistic fantasies and delineates a new, more complex hunting ground for well-prepared realists.
Now, the hunting ground rules have been updated. Stay patient and wait for the horn to sound under the new rules.
#加密市场小幅回暖 #2026行情预测
Every cycle of bull and bear markets is not only a price rotation but also a thorough reshuffle of market-dominant narratives, capital structures, and volatility paradigms. We are at such a historic turning point—the “intergenerational shift” in market-driven logic.
1. Short-term (Christmas period): This is a “liquidity vacuum” for options hunting, not a trend initiation
In late 2018 and 2022, we all experienced this “holiday effect.” The market features:
1. Fake breakouts are rampant: Due to shallow depth, a small amount of capital can create the illusion of breaking through key resistance, enticing chasing and panic selling, then quickly reversing.
2. Volatility compression and delay: Prices seem frozen, but this is only the calm before the storm. All suppressed volatility caused by low liquidity will be released around major options expirations (December 27) or institutional return (early January), resulting in intense one-way swings.
Current operational advice:
Absolutely do not attempt trend trades based on “breakouts” or “breakdowns” within the narrow range (BTC 86.5k-92k, ETH 2.94k-3.18k).
Actionable steps: “Perception position” orders (e.g., BTC 81.5k, ETH 2.75k, UNI 5.4). If extreme price spikes occur due to options expiration or liquidity drying up, these low-level orders are prepared for such moments. They allow you to acquire bloodied chips when no one is paying attention.
Core discipline: Stay on the sidelines and let the market perform. Your task is not to participate in this chaotic short-term melee but to protect your capital and wait for the dust to settle.
2. Long-term (2026 outlook): This is a paradigm revolution of “the old gods abdicate, the new kings are crowned”
The core logic driving the past two years of the crypto bull market—“loose liquidity expectations”—has faded. The market is painfully adapting to a new paradigm of “marginal liquidity tightening, growth relying on real demand.”
Resonance of three bull-bear cycles:
2013-2014 cycle: Narrative was “peer-to-peer electronic cash,” driven by Mt.Gox and retail investors. After the bubble burst, the market found that the “payment” narrative was invalid, entering a long value discovery phase.
2017-2018 cycle: Narrative was “world computer” and ICOs, driven by global retail hot money. After the bubble burst, the market found most applications were castles in the air, entering a “building phase.”
2020-2022 cycle: Narrative was “institutionalization” and “unlimited QE,” driven by global central bank liquidity injections. After the bubble burst, the market realized that “institutions” could also capitulate, requiring a more solid foundation for the narrative.
Now, we are in the “paradigm establishment phase” of the fourth cycle: the narrative is “digital value storage/settlement layer,” but the core driver has shifted from “central bank liquidity taps” to “ETF compliance buying.” Essentially, this is a shift from “macro liquidity beta” to “product demand alpha.”
Disruptive strategic insights for the next two years:
1. Forget the stereotypical narrative of “halving bull market”: past experience formulas are partially invalid. Halving affects supply, but the price ceiling in 2026 will be jointly determined by demand-side (ETF net inflows) and macro-side (interest rate cuts). The report’s conclusion that “120,000 is the new ceiling” is based on a rational calculation of this new formula and must be taken seriously.
2. You will become a “data trader”: the core rhythm will shift from “Federal Reserve FOMC meetings” to “non-farm payroll release days” and “weekly ETF capital flow data.” The former determines macro sentiment, the latter determines direct buying. Your trading calendar must be restructured around these two key points.
3. Bitcoin’s “attribute drift”: it is becoming more like a “high-volatility tech stock,” highly correlated with the Nasdaq and extremely sensitive to interest rates. This means analyzing US stock market trends and interest rate expectations will be more effective in judging BTC’s medium-term direction than on-chain data.
4. The logic of altcoins is undergoing a fundamental change: in an environment where overall liquidity is no longer abundant, capital will flow only into projects with the strongest narratives, real demand, and solid fundamentals. The past “altcoin season” where everything soared will weaken, but a structural bull market will be exceptionally fierce. That’s why we must focus intensely on DeFi blue chips (UNI), L2 leaders (OP), and RWA benchmarks (ONDO), as they represent “real demand.”
3. Comprehensive action plan: from “faith holders” to “macro-micro dual-track traders”
Based on the above, your role needs to evolve thoroughly:
1. Strategic level (macro track):
Keep a close eye on two charts: US non-farm payroll data and US CPI data. These determine the Fed’s “tapering” speed.
Monitor one capital flow: weekly net inflow into US spot Bitcoin ETF. This is the “thermometer” and “tachometer” of market strength.
Establish a new price framework: preset BTC’s core oscillation range to $80,000 (strong support) - $120,000 (new resistance). Conduct large swings within this range.
2. Tactical level (micro track):
Implement our “ultimate combat plan,” but time entries more closely with the above data points. For example, during “non-farm payroll days,” when poor data causes panic selling, execute “main force” building positions.
Be more selective with altcoins: only invest in projects that still generate real income, have ample reserves, and active developers during bear markets (i.e., “projects still under construction”). Use operational data to replace hollow narratives as investment basis.
Adjust profit-taking expectations: revise BTC’s ultimate target from the “150-200k” dream to a more pragmatic “120-130k.” This allows for calmer exits at high points and locking in profits.
True veterans are those who, after recognizing all brutal realities, can still formulate rigorous, calm, and executable plans, and execute them like machines. This report does not kill the market; it only kills unrealistic fantasies and delineates a new, more complex hunting ground for well-prepared realists.
Now, the hunting ground rules have been updated. Stay patient and wait for the horn to sound under the new rules.
