:Based on the latest market data, Ethereum (ETH) has successfully reclaimed the $3,000 level today (December 29). This is an important psychological threshold, and the current market is in a critical confirmation period after the breakout, with traders closely watching whether the price can hold steady.
Bullish targets (Resistance level)
· Primary target: $3,050
· Key short-term resistance and psychological level.
· Subsequent target: $3,120
· Upside target after breaking $3,050.
· Important milestone: $3,390
· Confirmation level for the bullish head and shoulders bottom pattern; breaking through could open up greater upside potential.
Bearish defense line (Support level)
· Recent support: $2,950 - $2,920
· The first support zone below the current price.
· Consensus strong support: around $2,700
· Dense chip zones and “whale” cost basis on-chain data, considered key consensus support in the current market.
· Critical defense: $2,620
· If the price falls below $2,700, this level will be the last line of defense for bulls.
Market core dynamics
There are several notable features in the current market:
· Chip structure: A large portion of ETH holdings have a cost basis between $2,700 and $3,100. This explains why the price has repeatedly oscillated within this range.
· Capital flow: Divergence observed. Although retail demand is relatively weak, “whale” addresses (large holders) have shown clear signs of accumulation since December 26.
· Technical signals: Some technical indicators (like RSI) show bullish divergence, suggesting downward momentum may be weakening. Meanwhile, a bullish reversal pattern (head and shoulders bottom) may be forming on the chart, with the neckline around $3,390.
· Macro sentiment: Research firm 10x Research points out that the market appears calm on the surface but signals from derivatives markets are complex. They believe that although ETH’s current trend is downward, a trend reversal could be triggered with a rise of about 5% (breaking $2,991).
Current operational considerations
Overall, the price is at a crossroads, and traders should focus on key levels for entry and exit.
If you are bullish and considering buying:
· Aggressive strategy: Try a small position after the price stabilizes above $3,000, with a stop-loss set below $2,950.
· Conservative strategy: Wait for a clear breakout and stabilization above the $3,050 resistance level before entering, with targets potentially up to $3,120 or higher.
· Core confirmation: The strongest bullish signal is a volume breakout above $3,390, which would confirm the bottom pattern. Theoretically, the target could be around $4,400.
If you are bearish or considering selling/hedging:
· Key observation point: Closely monitor the support performance in the $2,950-$2,920 range.
· Risk signal: If the price falls below $2,900 and continues to weaken, it may indicate further testing of the strong support zone at $2,700.
· Trend disruption: If the consensus support at $2,700 is effectively broken, the market could enter a “vacuum zone” lacking anchoring, opening the downside space.
In summary, Ethereum’s return to $3,000 is a positive signal, but it faces significant resistance overhead, and the market needs to digest the previous dense chip zones. The true trend-changing opportunity will only be confirmed after the price makes a clear choice at the $2,700 support or the $3,390 resistance.
Bullish targets (Resistance level)
· Primary target: $3,050
· Key short-term resistance and psychological level.
· Subsequent target: $3,120
· Upside target after breaking $3,050.
· Important milestone: $3,390
· Confirmation level for the bullish head and shoulders bottom pattern; breaking through could open up greater upside potential.
Bearish defense line (Support level)
· Recent support: $2,950 - $2,920
· The first support zone below the current price.
· Consensus strong support: around $2,700
· Dense chip zones and “whale” cost basis on-chain data, considered key consensus support in the current market.
· Critical defense: $2,620
· If the price falls below $2,700, this level will be the last line of defense for bulls.
Market core dynamics
There are several notable features in the current market:
· Chip structure: A large portion of ETH holdings have a cost basis between $2,700 and $3,100. This explains why the price has repeatedly oscillated within this range.
· Capital flow: Divergence observed. Although retail demand is relatively weak, “whale” addresses (large holders) have shown clear signs of accumulation since December 26.
· Technical signals: Some technical indicators (like RSI) show bullish divergence, suggesting downward momentum may be weakening. Meanwhile, a bullish reversal pattern (head and shoulders bottom) may be forming on the chart, with the neckline around $3,390.
· Macro sentiment: Research firm 10x Research points out that the market appears calm on the surface but signals from derivatives markets are complex. They believe that although ETH’s current trend is downward, a trend reversal could be triggered with a rise of about 5% (breaking $2,991).
Current operational considerations
Overall, the price is at a crossroads, and traders should focus on key levels for entry and exit.
If you are bullish and considering buying:
· Aggressive strategy: Try a small position after the price stabilizes above $3,000, with a stop-loss set below $2,950.
· Conservative strategy: Wait for a clear breakout and stabilization above the $3,050 resistance level before entering, with targets potentially up to $3,120 or higher.
· Core confirmation: The strongest bullish signal is a volume breakout above $3,390, which would confirm the bottom pattern. Theoretically, the target could be around $4,400.
If you are bearish or considering selling/hedging:
· Key observation point: Closely monitor the support performance in the $2,950-$2,920 range.
· Risk signal: If the price falls below $2,900 and continues to weaken, it may indicate further testing of the strong support zone at $2,700.
· Trend disruption: If the consensus support at $2,700 is effectively broken, the market could enter a “vacuum zone” lacking anchoring, opening the downside space.
In summary, Ethereum’s return to $3,000 is a positive signal, but it faces significant resistance overhead, and the market needs to digest the previous dense chip zones. The true trend-changing opportunity will only be confirmed after the price makes a clear choice at the $2,700 support or the $3,390 resistance.
