Since the eve of Christmas, TON cryptocurrency [TON] has been in a Sideways consolidation. Therefore, after reaching a high point of $6, TON has fallen back to $5.6.

TON lacks upward momentum, which has sparked discussions among analysts. Therefore, CryptoQuant analyst Joao Vazquez pointed out that the continued decline in futures interest is one of the factors affecting altcoins.

Decrease in interest rate swaps
In his analysis, Wedson observed that the number of swaps on the Toncoin network's decentralized exchange has sharply decreased.

According to his introduction, the average daily users of STON.fi have dropped to 13300, and the daily users of DeDust have dropped to 5250.

This is a significant decrease compared to the level in September, when the altcoin had nearly 200,000 users on two platforms every day.

The decrease in the number of users is influenced by three main factors. Firstly, the decrease in open positions, as many traders have liquidated or reduced their exposure to decentralized exchanges.

Secondly, since the arrest of the TON founder a few months ago, the TON community has experienced uncertainty in legal matters, which has affected participation and trust in the network platform.

Finally, since the last interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve, the entire cryptocurrency market has experienced unfavorable conditions, with a decrease in trading volume and a decrease in risk appetite.

As the trading volume of TON futures decreases, investors' interest is shifting from decentralized trading to staking.

While this decline may seem challenging, it can also provide a strategic opportunity. Historically, periods of low interest rates and market inactivity have always been attractive entry points for investors.

What does this mean for TON
It is worth noting that the sharp decline in swap interest reflects a decrease in buying pressure as investors express uncertainty about the market direction, thereby reducing their risk exposure.

Therefore, due to cautious attitudes of investors, the demand for Toncoin in market uncertainty has sharply declined.

We can reduce demand by using the inventory flow ratio of TON. According to Santiment, the SFR of altcoins has fallen to zero in the past three days.

When SFR declines like this, it means there is an excess supply and reduced scarcity. With an increase in supply, altcoins face selling pressure, which poses a risk of price decline.

The surge in TON's supply on the exchange further proves this supply surplus. As a result, the forex flow balance has soared to 3459. This indicates that investors are sending more assets to the exchange.

Read the [TON] price predictions for Toncoin in 2025–2026

In short, TON is currently reducing demand, and investors are becoming overly cautious. This indicates a lack of confidence in the market, with most people closing their positions while reducing risk.

Therefore, if these conditions continue, TON may fall to $5.2. However, if investors see the decline as a buying opportunity, the altcoin may break through the consolidation range of $6.1.