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As October comes to a close, the market dynamics for the next two months will be more noteworthy. Currently, there is a high probability of a 96.3% interest rate cut by the Fed in November. This round of Bull Market is different from the past, as market differentiation is becoming more apparent. The previous rapid pump seems to have peaked, and now it is entering an adjustment phase. The strong performance in the first half of the market has begun to weaken, and the subsequent rise may be more gradual, gradually digesting the previous gains, reflecting changes in capital structure. The early strong pump was mainly driven by the rapid inflow of regular capital, and now the market is gradually entering a consolidation period. Especially in the AltCoin field, there is a lack of Liquidity, and zone rotation is slowing down, making it difficult to sustain momentum. The biggest problem in the current market is the lack of two core factors: Liquidity and hotspots. In fact, Liquidity is crucial, as hotspots can be created through guidance. Once Liquidity is restored, market sentiment and hotspots will also become active, forming a virtuous cycle. The key in the future is how to activate market Liquidity, which will affect the overall trend of the market. As the election approaches, if Liquidity and hotspots appear at the same time, the market performance in November will be very much anticipated!
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After BTC was under pressure from the high point of 68748, it broke down continuously in the morning yesterday and reached a low point of 65543 before rebounding. The short sentiment in the market after the bottoming out is relatively weak. Overall, the daily candlestick still shows a rising trend. Although there have been several minor retracements in between, it doesn't have much impact on the overall pattern for now. Specifics will depend on the release situation on Sunday night and next week. I believe that the trend of the market will continue to recover in the next few days. Currently, the conversion level on the four-hour chart is around 67500, and short positions can be taken when there is a short-term rebound. The support below is first seen in the 66000-66200 area, and it is recommended to go long if it retraces to this level. If there is a second rebound, it will break the previous high point, so once it breaks the high next Monday, there is a high probability that it will reach 70000, the previous high!
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Regarding ETH, the recent weak pullback has basically erased all the gains that were made up to 2600 during the previous rebound, and it has returned to the trend of weak pullback. In the past six months, whenever the market pulls back, ETH is always hit the hardest, with a decline no less than other AltCoins, indicating that its resilience is not as good as before. ETH is no longer the same as before, and with the rapid changes in the market, we need to adjust our standards for evaluating assets accordingly. In the short term, it is better to follow the market rhythm and get on board with low retracements. Short positions may continue to spread, but considering the many resistance indicators above ETH, caution is still needed. You can follow the market trends and consider opening short positions only if there is a breakthrough in the intraday market strength.