Recent macro economic data is showing what looks like a "textbook-level stagflation warning" ~

On one hand, economic data is starting to weaken, with growth momentum cooling down; on the other hand, oil prices remain elevated, with no relief on the cost side.

Declining growth + persistent inflation = the most typical early signs of stagflation.

When the macro environment begins to deteriorate, trends often enter a phase of "back-and-forth pulling"; and in this kind of structure, the most uncomfortable scenario isn't a sharp crash, but rather choppy consolidation where prices can't rally decisively or decline smoothly.

For the market, this environment isn't very friendly:

Interest rates won't come down, liquidity can't be loosened, and valuations on risk assets naturally get pressured.

So this game right now isn't simply a bull-vs-bear question—it's macro variables taking control of the market.

The most terrifying aspect of stagflation is—

It won't knock you down all at once, but will slowly wear you down ~

Let's wait and see: will Trump drag the U.S. economy into recession?