#预测市场 Seeing the changes in Bitcoin forecast data on Polymarket, from 10% down to 8%, reminds me of a common misconception.

Many people are easily confused by market predictions, especially these types of probability data. Seemingly precise numbers can create the illusion of "grasping the pulse of the market," but in reality, prediction markets fundamentally reflect participants' emotional betting, not certainty about the future.

From the information available, the probability of Bitcoin reaching 100,000 has decreased, which may be due to market participants re-evaluating the year's end outlook. But I want to remind everyone—regardless of whether this probability is 8% or 80%, it doesn't change our investment logic.

What is the prudent approach? Maintain clear and disciplined position management. Don't leverage up just because a prediction is upward, and don't rush to exit just because the data shifts. The essence of market volatility is the uncertainty in participants' perceptions, and what we can control are only our risk tolerance and asset allocation framework.

In the long run, chasing short-term predictions often results in more loss than gain. Instead of obsessing over whether Bitcoin can rise again to 100,000, ask yourself: at the current price range, is this asset's proportion in my overall portfolio reasonable? Is there still room for risk tolerance? These are the real questions worth pondering.

Market predictions are everywhere, but sticking to your own investment discipline is the most valuable.