#预测市场 Seeing Vitalik's remarks, I suddenly remembered the years I got caught off guard. On social media, there are constant calls of "guaranteed rise," "guaranteed explosion," and "this time is different." I was hypnotized into following the trend, only to end up with nothing but a mess.

The logic of prediction markets is actually very brutal and straightforward—you have to use real money to verify your judgment. That’s what I value most right now. Those who shout every day in the group "civil war is impossible" but only dare to bet 3% on Polymarket, that gap says everything. The cost of lying on social media is zero, but in prediction markets, it’s your principal.

The pitfalls I’ve fallen into over the years have made me realize that the ability to distinguish true probabilities from emotional hype determines how long you can survive on-chain. No longer driven by FOMO, no longer trusting the stories of whales, but instead watching what those who actually put their money where their mouth is doing—that’s the core competitiveness for longevity. Prediction markets are like installing a BS detector for me. When faced with grand narratives and panic rhetoric, I first check how the market views it, then decide my stance. This approach of "using economics to fight lies" is more valuable than any investment course.