#预测市场 When I saw this study, it reminded me of a question many investors often ask me: How can we make better judgments in uncertain markets?

Kalshi's data provides an interesting insight—the accuracy of prediction markets in inflation forecasts is 40% less than the consensus expectations on Wall Street. The underlying logic is quite simple: the "wisdom of the crowd" formed by numerous traders driven by real economic incentives is often more sensitive than the views of a single expert. During periods of intense economic volatility, this advantage can even exceed 67%.

But I want to emphasize that this is not an encouragement to chase predictions themselves. On the contrary, this case reminds us of two important points:

First, never rely too heavily on any single prediction tool, even if it seems very accurate. Prediction markets and analyst consensus are just reference information; they are not the sole basis for decision-making.

Second, what truly matters is how we respond to uncertainty. Instead of obsessing over how much inflation will rise, spend more energy on position management and asset allocation—these are things we can truly control. During periods of high uncertainty, maintaining appropriate cash reserves and diversifying assets reasonably are prudent practices that will never go out of style.

In the long run, getting the direction right is far more valuable than precise predictions.