#预测市场发展 The statement that Trump's Gold Card sales reached $1.3 billion indeed warrants in-depth follow-up. Based on on-chain data and market reaction, the 89% zero-sales probability provided by Polymarket reflects the market's assessment of the authenticity of this data — this is not a simple doubt, but based on clear verification standards: final approval and completed payment.

Expressions like "sales are booming" and "sold out in just a few days" in Trump's statement are essentially liquidity commitments rather than settlement facts. From an investment research perspective, the core indicators I focus on should be: the actual amount of payments completed, the time series of fund inflows into on-chain wallets, and subsequent on-chain contract interaction records.

Currently, the market's probability distribution clearly leans toward skepticism, indicating that even within the United States, there is a lack of transparent verification mechanisms for the actual sales data of such investment immigration products. Future observations should focus on whether there will be substantive on-chain fund inflow evidence or official data disclosures from regulatory authorities. Such information gaps often imply a disconnect between market expectations and actual execution.