#美联储政策 Seeing the news that Waller will interview with Trump, the first thought that flashed through my mind is: the position of Federal Reserve Chair is undergoing a cyclical reshuffle of power.

I've seen this too many times over the years. Remember the turmoil in 2016? At that time, the discussion about the Fed's independence was at its peak. Now history has added a new footnote—the collision between political cycles and monetary policy cycles is becoming increasingly straightforward. Waller, Bowman, Wooten, including the currently most talked-about Haskett, they actually represent different policy tendencies. Waller emphasizes the labor market, which is a very critical angle.

Going back to the 2008 crisis, we saw how the Fed shifted from tightening to easing, and then to quantitative easing. Every power transfer is accompanied by some correction or continuation of the previous policies. This time is no different. Trump focuses on job growth, and Waller's emphasis in the interview just hits this point, which is no coincidence.

The most intriguing is Bowman’s departure. The market generally believes she would stick to independence. Now it seems that independence might have to give way a bit in the face of real political cycles. The GDP data will be released this week, and whether the "cutting interest rates" outcome can withstand scrutiny will directly influence market expectations of the new chair's policy orientation.

Looking at history, every Fed leader of their era is a product of the economic difficulties of that time. Waller's rise indicates that employment anxiety has become an overwhelming issue.