#市场周期与投资策略 When I saw this set of data from the Brazilian market, a word flashed through my mind: differentiation.

A 43% activity growth sounds exciting, but a closer look at the underlying logic reveals risks. The average investment amount jumps from a few hundred dollars to over 1000 dollars, and 18% of people are starting to diversify assets — this is not a sign of market maturity, but a sign of FOMO heating up. I’ve seen this scene in 2017 and 2021; each time, retail investors begin "serious investing," and it’s also when the bagholders are most densely accumulated.

The most warning sign is the tripling of stablecoin trading volume. On the surface, it looks like risk avoidance, but in reality, what is it? Large amounts of capital waiting for the right moment on exchanges. As soon as a project or coin starts to pump, these funds will instantly follow the trend. This is a typical precursor to a high-level relay game.

Another detail — investors under 24 years old increase by 56% annually. It’s best to cut into young people's money because they haven't experienced a bear market and have no immunity to volatility. When the market is filled with such fresh blood, the hunter’s hunting season begins.

Head assets like Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana are still relatively safe, but if you see various small coins and new coins starting to heat up at this stage, you should be more cautious. The cycle always comes like this — market participation surges, everyone talks about investing, but few talk about risks.

What you should always remember is: living longer is a thousand times more important than making quick money.