#预测市场 Vitalik's remarks hit the nail on the head for traders. Emotional predictions on social media are everywhere, but very few dare to bet real money—this is the beauty of prediction markets.

Reflecting on my own experience with copy trading over the years, the easiest pitfall to fall into is when a "big V" (influencer) with extreme views sets the tone. A 3% chance of a civil war in the UK sounds absurd, but at that time, many people started adjusting their positions based on a single tweet from Elon Musk. The mechanism of prediction markets forces participants to vote with real risk preferences—the cost of lying is genuine loss.

This has inspired me to adjust my copy trading strategy: not only should I look at traders' historical returns, but also their performance during times of extreme market sentiment. Those traders who can stick to their logic despite social media's frenzy of bullish or bearish calls are often more worth following long-term. Essentially, they are building a "prediction market" within their own trading—each order is a bet on the true probability of the market, not just an emotional vent.

Next time you see a call to buy or sell, ask yourself: how large a position is this person willing to risk on this view? The answer is usually more honest than the words themselves.