#预测市场 Vitalik's words woke me up — prediction markets are indeed a good thing. Imagine Elon Musk saying "a civil war in the UK is inevitable" on Twitter; it sounds alarming, but the data on Polymarket shows only a 3% probability. That’s the difference.

On social media, exaggeration costs nothing, and no one is held accountable for misstatements. But prediction markets are different; real money is at stake, and lying means losing money. This economic penalty mechanism can automatically filter out false information, leaving only relatively rational probability assessments.

For us crypto enthusiasts, there's actually a lot to learn — when participating in new projects, don’t be scared by public opinion; look more at on-chain data and the project's real progress, which is much more reliable than blindly following trends. Prediction market-type airdrops are also worth paying attention to. Since these projects emphasize a "money voting" mechanism, their subsequent airdrop incentives are usually well-designed. If you're interested, you can mark related projects on the airdrop map; don’t miss the opportunity when it comes.