Is the Bitcoin BCMI indicator falling to a historical bottom? On-chain momentum data analysis

Question

【ChainText】What do on-chain indicators reveal? CryptoQuant’s data analysts have noticed that Bitcoin’s BCMI continues to decline, and it has now fallen below the midline level. Although it hasn’t reached a historical low, this signal is quite meaningful — it’s not just a routine short-term cooling, but rather the entire market undergoing a structural reset.

Looking back at historical records makes it clear. The two cycle bottoms in 2019 and 2023 both occurred when the BCMI touched the range of 0.25 to 0.35. Now? The market may be transitioning into a true bear market phase, rather than just a simple correction.

In other words, if history repeats itself, the BCMI would need to fall back to the levels seen in 2019-2023 to form a truly solid bottom. The current stage is more like a downward transition — the market is still doing the reset work and hasn’t made the final move. On-chain prices and momentum are telling this story.

PumpStrategist · Accepted Answer

The pattern has formed, and the chip distribution shows that the bottom still needs to be drilled down further. The 2019 and 2023 waves both bottomed out between 0.25-0.35. Now that it has broken below the midline, it's just the beginning. Don't rush to buy the dip; wait until the risk is fully released before taking action.

MonkeySeeMonkeyDo · Answer

Another story of "history repeating itself," is this time really different?

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When BCMI breaks below the midline, it has to drop to 0.25-0.35. Why do I feel like this logic... is a bit too confident?

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Structural reset sounds impressive, but the market has never played by the rules, right?

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2019 and 2023 both hit bottom. Why does this time have to follow the same script again...

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On-chain momentum is telling a story, but the problem is, each time the story is different.

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Preemptively predicting the bottom before the hammer drops, isn't that a bit early?

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I just want to know if BCMI has bottomed out, who will step in to buy?

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Every cycle says "this time is different," but the results are always the same. Ironically, I'm still listening.

DefiPlaybook · Answer

BCMI needs to drop to 0.25-0.35 to stabilize. We're still in the transition period, and this rhythm feels a bit familiar.

It's another "structural reset." How many times have we heard this phrase this year? Let's keep observing.

Historical cycle theory always sounds correct, but it's hard to say when it will actually materialize.

On-chain data looks good, but I'm more concerned about when the big players will start to buy the dip.

This wave is indeed interesting, but don't rush to go all in.

GweiTooHigh · Answer

Is this set again? History will repeat itself but not exactly the same. Don't be fooled by BCMI.

Wait, the term "structural reset" sounds a bit vague... Can data really predict the bottom so accurately?

When BCMI breaks below the midline, it's considered a bear market. It feels like these indicators are all armchair strategists after the fact.

Is the 0.25-0.35 range reliable? Anyway, I haven't seen any clear evidence.

I'm still studying resets, so it's better to just admit I don't know when the bottom will be.

On-chain data looks good, but when it comes to trading, you still need to rely on your psychological preparedness.

This round is again filled with "maybe," "perhaps," "if," and in the end, we still have to wait for the market to speak.

NewDAOdreamer · Answer

Structural reset? Sounds like it's going to keep falling again, this wave isn't over yet.

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I didn't buy the dip in 2019, and I missed it again in 2023. If BCMI really drops to that level this time, I’ll go all in.

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By the way, these standards are so inaccurate. Every time they say history repeats, but then...

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During the bear market transition period, the implication is that we still have to wait, which is exhausting.

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The 0.25-0.35 range is really a curse, always precise every time.

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Still no hammer? Then I'll hold my coins and sleep first, call me when it hits the bottom.

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On-chain momentum has fallen to this level, does no one want to buy the dip?

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Sounds like they’re saying there might be another drop, alright, I’m mentally prepared.

MissedAirdropBro · Answer

Hmm... Do we have to drop back to 0.25-0.35 again? It seems my holdings might be trapped again.

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Structural reset sounds pretty scary, but honestly, it just means we have to keep falling.

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From 2019 to 2023, this has been the bottom range. If we're not there yet, how much longer do I have to wait?

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Transition period, transition period. Every time it's the transition period, but the wallet keeps transitioning.

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No way, are we really heading into a true bear market? I thought we were already in a bear.

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On-chain momentum tells a story; my assets tell a story of losses.

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When BCMI truly drops to that level, I fear I will have already exited.

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So the current lows aren't lows? It's really confusing.

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This wave is really a reset, and my mindset has been reset too.

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Why is it always "not over yet"? There's no clear answer.

QuietlyStaking · Answer

Look at this BCMI trend... Is it going to drop to 0.25-0.35 before hitting the real bottom? I'm a bit scared, feels like this wave isn't over yet

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I didn't fully buy in during the 2019 wave, and I didn't fully buy in again in 2023. This time, I can't afford to miss it again... Structural reset sounds pretty scary

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A structural reset means we still have to wait a bit longer, the market hasn't truly bottomed out yet, I can still hold onto my coins

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Can we just keep it simple? Just tell me if it will keep falling to the 3-digit range

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No matter how much on-chain data tries to tell a story, in the end, it still depends on your own judgment. Anyway, I'm not moving anymore

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0.25 to 0.35... I would have been stopped out long before then, haha

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It's a transition period, right? Let's just assume it's still oscillating, and wait for a real signal before making any moves

Is the Bitcoin BCMI indicator falling to a historical bottom? On-chain momentum data analysis

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