Fed's probability data for January next year is out: the probability of interest rate cuts is only 20%, and maintaining the interest rate is highly likely.

According to the latest data from CME's Fed Watch Tool, the market has a clearer expectation for the interest rate trend in January next year. The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is at 22.1%, while the probability of maintaining the current interest rate level is as high as 77.9%. What does this mean? The market generally believes that the Fed is highly likely to remain inactive at the beginning of the new year. This is crucial for the crypto world—every move made by the Fed can leverage the entire asset market. The higher the certainty of interest rate policy, the clearer the pricing logic for risk assets. From this set of data, the market has already provided its answer.