The US CPI and core CPI in November both fell short of expectations, leading the market to increase bets on the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates next year.

However, Goldman Sachs believes that this data may not change the Federal Reserve's short-term policy stance, as decision-makers are more focused on the December CPI to assess the true level of inflation. Goldman Sachs pointed out that the unexpected decline in core CPI is more due to technical and timing factors rather than a general easing of overall inflation. Among them, housing-related inflation is significantly below trend, dragging down the overall index, which may be related to technical adjustments due to missing October data and the later timing of price collection in November.

Goldman Sachs warns investors not to overinterpret and states that the Labor Department has not yet clarified how to handle data distortions, with a risk of reversal in the coming months; housing data is expected to be revised, and commodity inflation may see a slight rebound in December.