#美联储降息政策 The handover node of the Fed Chair is indeed worth paying attention to. Hassett's ascension probability has reached 86%, and the policy shift signals behind this are very clear — accelerating interest rate cuts, restarting QE, prioritizing growth instead of controlling inflation.

From an on-chain perspective, once the expectations for liquidity easing materialize, the funding situation will significantly improve. It has been noted that large addresses have been accumulating recently, and whale movements have started to become active, which is usually a leading indicator of a shift in liquidity expectations. The key to track is the rhythm of funds flowing into exchanges—if institutions continue to accumulate at low levels, it indicates that the expectation gap has been fully priced in.

More importantly, Hassett's background in cryptocurrency. He once held a million-dollar stake in Coinbase and worked on digital asset policy, which directly reduces the regulatory risk premium. In contrast, this is substantively beneficial for the legitimacy of BTC and the improvement of institutional liquidity.

Expectations are divided into two stages: in the short term, we look at the expected reaction before the interest rate cut policy is implemented, and in the medium term, we focus on the liquidity release after the restart of QE. According to market consensus, mid-year is a key window. The current position allows for continuous monitoring of the movements of large contract holders and net outflow data from exchanges—these two indicators often reflect the true attitude of institutions in advance.