Controversy over $1.3 billion in sales: Prediction platform questions the authenticity of Trump Gold Card data

【Blockchain Rhythm】Trump claims that Trump Gold Card sales are booming, with sales exceeding $1.3 billion. However, the prediction platform Polymarket has raised strict doubts about this figure.

Polymarket explicitly states that only sales data that have been finally approved and fully paid can be recognized. Trump’s statement on December 19 regarding the sales of the Gold Card, as well as Howard Lutnick’s claim that “sales worth $1.3 billion were sold in just a few days,” do not meet this standard — because these are merely sales claims and do not meet the hard condition of “payment completed.”

The most telling evidence is the prediction data itself. To date, the probability of the prediction that Trump Gold Card sales this year on Polymarket is 0 remains as high as 89%, reflecting widespread skepticism in the market about the authenticity of the official statement.

The Trump Gold Card is essentially an investment immigration program that allows wealthy foreigners to obtain U.S. residency by paying $1 million plus a $15,000 processing fee. Although the sales momentum is strong, from the perspective of prediction markets, the actual transaction numbers may be far lower than the publicity figures.