Flying towards a $1.5 trillion IPO, Elon Musk almost lost everything: SpaceX's 23-year epic from inception to space dominance

In the winter of 2025, SpaceX’s internal stock offering will be valued at $800 billion, preparing for a 2026 IPO that could raise over $30 billion. Musk aims for a $1.5 trillion market cap—potentially the largest IPO in human history, creating the first trillionaire! But 23 years ago, no one believed this outcome: SpaceX was seen as a “manufacturing underdog” by aerospace giants, Musk nearly went bankrupt, divorced, faced idol ridicule, and experienced four launches with three failures… From being spat on when buying rockets from Russia, to Falcon rocket recovery + Starship stainless steel revolution + Starlink printing money, Musk has disrupted the industry with first principles thinking. This is not just an inspiring story but a turning point in human space history—IPO is not about cashing out but about “interstellar tolls,” fueling Mars colonization!

SpaceX Valuation Surge and IPO Outlook

2025 revenue is expected at $15 billion (80% from Starlink), soaring to $22-24 billion in 2026. If IPO happens, raising over Saudi Aramco’s $29 billion record, market cap could rank in the top 20 globally.

From “Rocket Madman” to Space Dominator: 23 Key Turning Points

2001-2002: Russian humiliation leads to self-made rockets

• Musk cashes out $100 million from PayPal, dreams of a Mars oasis
• Being spat on when buying rockets from Russia + high prices as shame
• Calculating on Excel in the plane: “We can build our own”

SpaceX founded: aiming for low-cost space transportation, like “Space Southwest Airlines.”

2006-2008: Three explosions, near bankruptcy

2008 was the darkest: financial crisis + Tesla bankruptcy + divorce + idol Armstrong/Sernan publicly mocked. Musk with bloodshot eyes: “They are heroes, but I am disappointed.”

2015: Reusable rockets, ushering in an era of cheap spaceflight

• Persisting with rocket reuse (opposition: like recycling paper cups)
• 2015.12.21: Falcon 9 first stage vertical landing
• Disrupting rules: from “single-use” to “aircraft-style reuse”

Starship revolution: stainless steel “dimensionality reduction strike”

• Initial doubts about carbon fiber (expensive + complex)
• First principles calculation: stainless steel at $3/kg vs carbon fiber at $135/kg, heat resistance + strength wins
• Result: cost reduced 40x, welding rockets on desert tents, not afraid of explosions

Starlink’s killer app: from space to global telecom giant

• 7.65 million subscribers, covering 24.5 million
• 2025 revenue 80% from Starlink
• Change: space from “scenery” to “infrastructure”

Night before IPO: Musk’s “Interstellar Toll”

• Previously opposed to going public: “Painful invitation, distracting stock price”
• Now shifting: Mars plans require astronomical funding (no crewed landing within 2 years, crewed within 4 years, a million cities in 20 years)
• IPO worth hundreds of billions: not for cashing out but for “Earth-to-Interstellar tolls”

Employee benefits: early engineers could become millionaires/billionaires.

Musk’s secret to success: no “failure” in the dictionary, challenging all assumptions with first principles. From nearly losing everything to soaring to $1.5 trillion—this is not a legend but the starting point of humanity’s multi-planet future.

What do you think about SpaceX’s IPO? Share your thoughts in the comments~ Take one step, see one step—rockets are ignited, Mars is waiting!