The ugly truth about the U.S. Census Bureau: Behind the 2.6% CPI "pretty number" are statistical manipulation and re-ignition of commodity inflation!

The recently announced November CPI annual rate of 2.7% (core 2.6%) caused a brief market celebration, as if the Federal Reserve had achieved a great victory. But don’t be fooled by this “beautiful number”! The devil is in the details: on the left hand, the statistical bureau’s “artificial falsification” smooths out rent inflation; on the right hand, the true inflation on the goods side is quietly rising. The six-month annualized core goods inflation has already reached 1.9%—almost zero before the pandemic, the highest since mid-2023! Once the statistical blunder is digested and rent data is revised, CPI may rebound sharply, reigniting inflation flames.

How the “pretty” 2.6% is a false “calculation”

Core inflation plummeted to a 12-month low, seeming like a victory for the Fed. But the truth is a statistical accident:

This is not a real economic slowdown, but “statistical fakery”! The light blue line (3-month annualized) plunges sharply, but it’s essentially a artificially lowered “fake line”.

The overlooked truth: goods inflation is surging against the trend

When you remove the “faked rent” cover-up and look at the real goods prices, warning signals emerge:

The most accurate feeling: shopping at supermarkets, buying clothes, cars—prices aren’t falling, they’re rising! Goods inflation is hard to fake; this is the most genuine signal from the real economy.

The most dangerous combination: the flames of re-inflation are already lit

The current picture is extremely divided:

• Service sector (rent) inflation is “artificially smoothed” by the statistical bureau, lowering the overall index
• Goods inflation is rising against the trend (tight supply chains + tariff expectations + demand recovery)

This is the earliest dangerous sign of “Reflation”: the flames first ignite in the goods sector. Once it spreads:

• After the statistical blunder is corrected, rent data will inevitably rebound
• Goods inflation will jump from 1.9% to 2.5%+
• Overall CPI will surge again, reigniting inflation expectations

The Fed’s “victory declaration” may turn out to be empty talk, and the rate cut path will be forced to adjust.

Market speculation and warnings

Short-term: markets celebrate the “fake cooling,” risk assets rebound.
Mid-term: the truth of the statistics is exposed + persistent goods inflation data, inflation expectations reverse.
Long-term: if re-inflation spirals out of control, prolonged high interest rates will hit growth stocks / AI / crypto and other high-duration assets with valuation kills.

Don’t be fooled by the pretty 2.6%—the devil is in the details. True inflation is quietly rising from the goods side. The story of the Fed’s “soft landing” is far from simple.

What do you think about this CPI? Share your thoughts in the comments~
A. Statistical fakery, inflation will rebound
B. Genuine slowdown, rate cuts continue
C. Goods prices rising normally, no big deal
D. Still observing the data

Take one step at a time—details determine success or failure!