BTC drops from 126,000 to 86,000: Bull market narrative collapses, old money accelerates exit—Three possible trends in 2026, the most likely one is it!

In October, BTC hit a new all-time high of $126,000, with the entire market shouting “starting at 200,000.” In just two months, BTC fell 31% to $86,000, ETH dropped 30% to $2,800. Grayscale announced “new highs in 2026,” Wall Street predicts a “calm end in 2025.” Long-term holders dumping aggressively, ETF funds tug-of-war, spot market slowly bleeding—this is not a normal correction but a narrative collapse. Will there be a bull market in 2026? Three possible trends, with the highest probability (60%) of a sideways bottoming. Don’t rush to buy the dip; surviving is victory.

How the bull market narrative collapsed in two months

October peak at $126,000:

• Institutional entry + ETF continuous buying narrative hot
• Market consensus: starting at 150,000, expecting 200,000

December reality:

• Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25bp, but dot plot hints only one cut in 2026
• BTC broke below $85k, over $600 million in 24-hour liquidation
• Weekly down 6.5%, ETH down 15% for the week
• From “200k” to “holding onto 80k,” the narrative collapsed in just two months

This is not an ordinary correction: three different signals

Old money sees risks we haven’t seen and has chosen to exit.

Grayscale vs Wall Street: Who is more reliable?

The truth may be in the middle: 2026 is neither a deep bear nor a violent bull, but more likely a frustrating year of oscillation.

Three possible trends for 2026

Most probable: sideways bottoming—rise to 95k, old money sells, drop to 75k, institutions buy small, low trading volume, volatility drops—torturing everyone but also the best period for dollar-cost averaging.

How to respond in three scenarios

• Deep Bear: Stop DCA, hold cash, buy in batches below 60k, avoid altcoins
• Sideways Bottoming: Lower expectations, DCA BTC/ETH, no leverage, keep 30%+ cash, buy dips and sell rallies
• Institutional Bull: Don’t chase highs, set take-profit at 120k, follow institutions reducing positions

Three iron rules:

1. Crypto allocation no more than 50%
2. Leverage no more than 2x
3. Don’t believe “this time is different”

Historical reflection: 2021 peak vs now, how similar?

• 2021.11 peak at 69k, market shouting 100k starting point
• Followed by a year and a half bear market, dropping to 17.6k
• Similarities: rapid correction after high, institutional narrative peak followed by decline, long-term selling

Differences: no Luna/FTX-level black swan, only macro tightening + old money retreat → The decline may be mild, but rebounds also gentle

2026 could be a “nothing happens” year: no big surge, no crash, just grind.

Final advice

Bought at October peak, now down 31%; panic bought in December, may continue to lose. 2026 is not a year to make money but a year to survive + accumulate. Most likely scenario: sideways bottoming—patient DCA, preserve principal, wait for real opportunity in 2027.

Markets don’t move as expected, only follow liquidity and human nature. 2026 has no certainty—lower expectations, keep cash, avoid gambling—that’s the right path.

What do you think about 2026? Share in the comments~ A. Sideways bottoming, mainly DCA B. Institutional bull, prepare to buy C. Deep bear, hold cash and watch D. Indifferent, long-term hold

Take one step at a time—survive longer, see farther!