$BTC The final long (series), and our 8th win in a row.

Alright, we finally reached into our beloved low 80's area, heading into our latter stages of the bottoming process, which we called for since hitting 94k, and performing our bearish FOMC reversal, which would lead us to at least 87.7k into the low 80's most likely, which is where we are now.

We traded the range (step 1)

We expected the market to form a range sitting on our ancient old purple area. We called this range as a double range 0-0.25 - 0.5 - 0.75 construct, extracting those levels from one to the other to the next. And in conjunction this clean range and bottoming process, we traded the range pretty much exactly from the point it started top to bottom, bottom to top. All is recorded on my timeline, with calls in live time and full transparency on what move we made each step along the way.

Scoring 7 wins in a row (taking 8 trades in total, 1 was a tiny win, I am not counting that in all fairness).

And so we have been showcasing how to trade a range to near perfection, taking both longs and shorts.

The beauty of it? We booked a lot of profits while price is still at the same point it pretty much has been from the start, beating all the holders, not just financially, but also mental-health-wise. Indeed, the way a range should be played.

When do we trend back up again (step 2), Astro?

And so, that leads us to the question, when will this go back up? Or will it go down like everyone else is saying? Which direction Astro, and when? What about BOJ rate hikes?

Well, you already know I promised you 112k, and I promised you no weekly closes below the 81k, and I gave you the high timeframe purple box. There are more details to come, and I also already have given more details. but for now, that is initially what you should be aware of. As both give an invalidation and a target, and, an entry (price right now).

When will it exactly end? I will make that clear post by post over the days and weeks to come, whenever the post makes the most sense because just like trade entries, timing of posts matters just as much.

Most people "clout farm" in hindsight or try to predict 3 or 4 moves in advance. What's the point, is what I say. All that matters to make money, is the very next move, before the move starts.

That is the only way to help you. And so I like to create the posts where I know it will help you the most, at the exact time I believe it will help you the most.

Long series to catch 112k

And so on that note, first things first, the post that helps you the most, is the one to get you in a position right now. The position, I will be building towards 112k, the long and a-promised one. I know I have been promising this one for a while, but we had to wait for the right time to start. Now that the most lucrative part of trading the bottom range here is done, the time is approaching to start building for a trending move (up) again.

Indeed, a higher timeframe (Daily-2D-3D) trade, in conjunction with a bigger move we are aiming to capture.

And in conjunction with a higher timeframe, also comes a bigger size.

Indeed, I took this long with bigger size than my trade-the-range trades, because trending moves go fast, you want to go in with bigger size to leverage that one sided price action.

Keep in mind, this is the first portion (one third) of the entries I will be adding to this long if provided. And I will add them at strategic times, as our analysis develops.

And where we topped based on the FOMC reversal on December 9th, we now started the bottoming process again, a longer window (post FOMC reversal), leading us to a higher price, 112k.

That bottom, will finish the range. And so we must show conviction, we must expect the range to end before anyone else, and we must prepare for it.

Here is my preparation, here is the first entry, as part of the final long towards 112k.

Pre-emptive Q&A

Now, with every expected change in market conditions, and alongside, my trading, come the same question from you. So I will already answer them here:

Will you still trade lower timeframes?

Of course I will. But the main framework and idea is to expect a low coming, one that should be attempted to be caught, and of which meaningful portions should be held towards 112k, which is a higher timeframe move. So to stay ahead of everyone and the market, in my book, means to slowly come off range trading, and slowly set up for the big move.

Will we go higher than 112k?

Also yes. But the reason I give 112k is already mentioned. It is the sentiment pivot, and the point where bears likely fomo back in. We should aim for ath one step at a time and 112k is the first big step, far far away.

What about BOJ rate hikes?

This will also be addressed in future posts. Again, a lot of misinformation going around. But to lift your fear: the timing of the relative drop was different this time.

Your invalidation is at 74.7k. Why is it there if you don't expect 74.7k?

Well, that is exactly the point of an invalidation. It should be at a point where you do not expect price to go, unless your idea is wrong.

The trade is only 2.4 RR, meh

But the conviction, move caught, and so the risk and size taken is higher, which leads to the same payout:

Someone catching 100 trades, using 1% risk, and having an 80% win rate, starting with 10,000 USD, will end up with 30,000 - 40,000 USD.

Someone catching just 20 trades, using 4% risk, and having a win rate of 80%, starting with 10,000 USD, will end up with about the same amount, for less trades: 30,000 - 40,000 USD

Range traders make good money, trend traders make good money

But range traders get rekt in a trending environment and vice versa, and so the consistent trader, knows and trades both.

Summary

That wraps up my framework going forward, and how I attempt to catch my 8th win in a row (or, a loss, I do not think so but we shall see). You certainly may expect a bit more zooming out on my end. But that is the way to go here. I explained in thorough detail why on the trade management side.

In terms of analysis, I will also share more. I have already shared a lot too, for the astute ones checking every post I write, you probably already know.

In any case, I hope this framework helps. All is purely educational, to help you become better at trading and investing, through the lens of a real trader, not a line drawer or conviction less slash position less "caller".