#BTC Intraday Analysis

1️⃣ Structural Interpretation: Currently, the price is testing around 85,000 again. The recent decline is driven by persistent spot selling rather than high leverage liquidations. This "slow bleeding" pattern is harder to reverse than a rapid drop. The 84,000 support level has been broken, with the largest decline reaching around 77,500.
2️⃣ Capital Flow & On-Chain & Exchange Dynamics: On-chain data (core bearish signal): Long-term holders (LTH) are cashing out at the fastest rate in over five years. Data shows that the past 30 days have been one of the most intense periods of selling by long-term holders. Since early 2023, approximately 1.6 million Bitcoins that haven't moved in at least two years have been reduced. Demand-side contraction (worsening imbalance): Buying power that once absorbed this selling pressure is weakening. ETF capital flows have shifted to net outflows, derivatives market trading volume has declined, and retail participation has thinned. The same selling pressure is now falling on a market with weaker liquidity and fewer buyers. Positive signals: Some analysts point out that the selling by long-term holders may be nearing saturation. Currently, about 20% of Bitcoin supply has been reactivated in the past two years, approaching a historical threshold. It is expected that such selling pressure will diminish by 2026.
3️⃣ Intraday Trading Strategy: Before breaking above 90,000, avoid going long in the short term. If the 95,000-96,000 zone shows clear signs of stagnation (such as double tops or bearish engulfing patterns), and weakness is observed, consider short positions. Stop loss at a break below 96,000 or around 85,000. If a strong breakout occurs above 96,000, look towards 102,000. When strong bullish reversal patterns appear on the hourly chart (such as Morning Star or bullish engulfing) around 84,500-83,800, with significantly increased volume, small positions can be considered for a technical rebound. If broken downward, watch around 80,000 or even 77,500.
4️⃣ Risk Warning: Liquidity depletion risk: Weak market buying could trigger sharp price declines with large sell orders, causing stop-loss failures or slippage. Chain reaction of negative sentiment: If the key psychological and technical support at $85,000 is confirmed to break, it may trigger a new round of long stop-losses and panic selling. Macro uncertainty: Analysts note that due to intensive macroeconomic events this week, the market may still experience significant volatility and test lower liquidity zones.