#ETH Intraday Analysis

1️⃣ Structure Interpretation of ETH Movement: "Clearly weaker than the broader market, with weak rebounds after breaking down." The price broke below the 3000-2920 range, and the rebound was much smaller compared to Bitcoin and other mainstream coins, confirming its short-term leading decline position. ETH needs to first regain this level and re-establish above 3000 to reverse the extremely weak situation; otherwise, it will continue to seek support lower.
2️⃣ Capital Flow & On-Chain & Exchange Dynamic Capital Flows (Core Pressure Sources): Capital outflow is more severe than BTC. On Monday, spot Ethereum ETF saw a net outflow of $224.8 million, a significant pressure relative to its market cap, directly suppressing any substantial rebound. Sector Rotation: Market-active funds are not flowing into Ethereum and its core ecosystem. The top gainers are dominated by independent narrative sectors like SocialFi and RWA, while Ethereum-related sectors such as Layer2 and DeFi are in the middle, indicating that after fleeing ETH, funds are choosing other newer, lighter tracks.
3️⃣ Intraday Trading Ideas for Weak Assets: Only short positions, not long. Do not expect any rebound until ETH re-establishes and stabilizes above 3000. If a rebound reaches the 1-hour oversold zone and faces obvious resistance nearby, consider a light short position. The best entry point for shorts is around 3150. Support levels are at 3000-2900. If the price stabilizes in this range and forms bullish candlestick patterns, it is an ideal low-buy entry point, with stop-loss set at a 1-hour candle break. Normally, the short entry zone should be around 3500-3650. If 2900 breaks down, watch below near 2800.
4️⃣ Risk Warnings: Independent Downside Risk: Due to extremely weak capital conditions, ETH may experience a decline or breakdown independent of BTC. Ecosystem Confidence Loss Risk: Continued weakness and capital outflows could damage Ethereum’s ecosystem reputation, potentially leading to developer and user attention loss, forming long-term fundamental bearishness. High Volatility Trap: ETH’s high volatility means that during a downtrend, short-term rebounds may seem "tempting," but often are traps, and chasing longs can easily lead to being caught.