I find it very surprising that the data center theme is not exhausted at all
Given what is happening and what is coming, I would expect sky high valuations across anything related to it
Yet we still have $NVDA at 25x NTM earnings, $GOOG at 28x, $AMD at 38x, $MU at 13x, $AMAT at 27x, $CRDO at 43x, and $AVGO at 36x
Even prices for pure data center plays like $CIFR, $IREN, $WULF, and $NBIS look very grounded
So what is going on here?
Everyone talks about AI as the greatest revolution in human history, yet valuations do not reflect that level of hype
You might argue that this is just semiconductors being cyclical
That is fair, but this is not a typical cycle where slightly weaker consumer demand can flip profitability
This is not about laptops or gaming PCs. AI goes far beyond that
Semiconductors have become orders of magnitude more important since ChatGPT was released, and the bottlenecks and demand for tokens are not slowing down anytime soon
The resulting productivity gains will justify these investments, and as models continue to improve, this reality will only become more obvious
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I find it very surprising that the data center theme is not exhausted at all
Given what is happening and what is coming, I would expect sky high valuations across anything related to it
Yet we still have $NVDA at 25x NTM earnings, $GOOG at 28x, $AMD at 38x, $MU at 13x, $AMAT at 27x, $CRDO at 43x, and $AVGO at 36x
Even prices for pure data center plays like $CIFR, $IREN, $WULF, and $NBIS look very grounded
So what is going on here?
Everyone talks about AI as the greatest revolution in human history, yet valuations do not reflect that level of hype
You might argue that this is just semiconductors being cyclical
That is fair, but this is not a typical cycle where slightly weaker consumer demand can flip profitability
This is not about laptops or gaming PCs. AI goes far beyond that
Semiconductors have become orders of magnitude more important since ChatGPT was released, and the bottlenecks and demand for tokens are not slowing down anytime soon
The resulting productivity gains will justify these investments, and as models continue to improve, this reality will only become more obvious