12.11

The early morning interest rate decision was announced, with a 25BP cut in line with market expectations. Here are three key points from the Federal Reserve's announcement:
1. The statement included a sentence: “If there are risks that hinder the achievement of the target, be prepared to adjust monetary policy at any time.” This is considered a dovish forward guidance, implying that as long as inflation approaches the 2% target or if the employment market continues to cool and the unemployment rate increases, it will trigger monetary policy adjustments.
2. The Fed announced a short-term bond purchase plan, which, although not QE, can be considered a technical balance sheet expansion mainly for defensive purposes to prevent liquidity shortages in the banking financial system. While it won't directly stimulate risk markets like QE, it effectively increases market leverage and reduces risks.
3. Among the few dissenting votes in this decision, Milan still voted against the rate hike, advocating a 50BP rate cut, while Gulbis and Schmid voted against maintaining the current interest rate.

BTC
Overall, the speech in the early morning was just a form of Tai Chi. The approach shared yesterday was that the market trend needs to continue, and attention should be paid to whether the 93900 level can hold. After a quick spike upward yesterday, it quickly retreated. Currently, the market still faces a directional choice. Recent market movements are not worth overanalyzing and are only suitable for short-term trading. In summary, if 93900 is not broken, watch out for short-term risks; below, focus on whether 89000 can hold. The main range is between 89000-87500 for support, and resistance levels are 93000-93900-95500.

ETH
Ethereum has seen increased institutional accumulation recently, but it still cannot withstand the overall industry liquidity exhaustion. The overall market is stronger than Bitcoin. The resistance at 3360 remains unbroken. Watch whether 3195 can hold during the day. If it does, the market can continue to move higher in a range-bound manner. Support levels are 3200-3075, and resistance levels are 3360-3430.