12.10

The Federal Reserve's interest rate decision at 3 AM on the 11th will most likely result in a 25bp rate cut. The key focus will be on the dot plot and Powell's speech.
25bp rate cut: 88%
No rate cut: 11%
50bp rate cut: 1%
The biggest news yesterday was that the US agreed to sell Nvidia's H200 to China. For the market, this signals a continuation of the honeymoon period between the two countries, and there's no need to worry too much about US-China trade issues for now. Additionally, Trump can still impose a 25% tariff. Besides, the increase in job vacancies shows that the US economy may not be as bad as feared.
Moreover, the innovation for the crypto industry has already begun. Today, US federal banks regulated by the OCC are officially allowed to conduct risk-free principal crypto asset trading. This means banks can now take on some of the roles of exchanges by providing cryptocurrency trading services. While this may reduce some exchanges' revenues, it's a very positive development for the industry. After all, banks are essentially regulated exchanges.

BTC
Bitcoin rebounded sharply upward yesterday but failed to hold above the key 93,900 level. However, the four-hour chart shows that the bottom is gradually rising, so the key to watch next is whether the daily chart (both main and sub-charts) can continue this trend. To sustain the trend, it must hold above 93,900. In summary, as long as 90,000 isn't broken during the day, it will continue to oscillate upwards. Support is at 90,950–90,000; resistance is at 93,900–97,000.

ETH
Ethereum's rebound this round has been relatively strong. Based on the current market, there may be a minor pullback, but the pullback will likely not be significant. The key level to watch today is 3,200. As long as this isn't broken, it will continue to oscillate upwards. The market is fluctuating more recently, so it's important to stay sensitive to these changes. Also, keep an eye on whether tonight's news can drive further momentum. Support is at 3,200–3,140; resistance is at 3,360–3,430.