11.25

Last Friday, Williams announced his support for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates in December. On Monday, Waller and Daly also spoke in support of the Federal Reserve cutting rates in December. Waller is not worth mentioning since he is originally a Trump appointee. Now that Daly also supports the rate cut, it’s better news for the market, especially since this decline started with Powell's announcement of no rate cut in December, compounded by the U.S. government shutdown. Now that the shutdown has ended, liquidity is gradually returning.
The key point is that the dovish supporters of interest rate cuts have now exceeded half, and according to CME's forecast data, the probability of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December has surpassed 85%. Therefore, the market is gradually warming up, not only with the rise of US stocks. This week is Thanksgiving and Black Friday, mainly for the first three days. After that, we can take a break, and I hope there won't be any unforeseen issues.

BTC
Yesterday, the idea I shared was that this position would see a rebound. Indeed, we experienced a rebound yesterday, reaching the resistance I mentioned. Currently, on a daily basis, the four-hour chart is facing resistance. What we need to pay attention to next is whether the four-hour level can stand above the zero axis and stabilize at the position of 88900. If it can hold this position, there is still room at the daily level. So, in summary, as long as we do not break 87400 today, there is room for a rebound, but note that it is just a rebound, not a reversal. Support levels are 87400-86000-82400, and resistance levels are 89300-91500.

ETH
The idea Ethereum provided to everyone yesterday was to pay attention to whether it can hold above 2950. At this point, I have been asking everyone to keep an eye on the range between 2800 and 2550. This range remains a key area to determine whether this wave of market will find a bottom. Looking at this week's summary, we should pay attention to whether 2980 can hold. If it can hold, there is a chance to test the range of 3000 to 3200 again, with support at 2862-2780-2680 and resistance at 2980-3070-3200.