#市场分析与趋势

Yesterday we thought there would be another wave of increase, but we didn't expect it to be this strong. Currently, the position is still at a reasonable rebound level within the normal downtrend (exactly at the 0.618 of this decline, and it meets the following conditions: 1. The rebound time in the downtrend is shorter than the main downtrend duration, 2. The rebound strength is exactly at the Fibonacci level, 3. The one-hour and four-hour charts have absorbed a wave of upward energy, 4. Four days have passed, 5. In the one-hour downtrend, the upward energy is almost depleted, the MACD line has kissed multiple times, and there is energy divergence, 6. The most important reason is that during the weekly downtrend, this small increase did not break the daily upward trend line, and it didn't even touch it.

So how can we determine if the market will reverse? It's quite simple. As shown by the white line in my chart, the first move is to break through the daily level downtrend channel (yellow line). Then, after retesting the downtrend channel, we need to continue breaking through the previous high (117900). Only then can we consider that we are just beginning to look for a market reversal. When this kind of trend appears, there may also be a double top pattern, at which point we will need to observe the upward momentum and other performance indicators.

This is my position amount change chart for this week. I have held short positions in Bitcoin since before the interest rate cut, and my position almost doubled when Bitcoin hit its lowest point. Although I am in for the long term, the feeling of profit giving back is indeed unpleasant. But that's how trading works; it’s hard when you sell too soon, and it's also hard to watch profits evaporate. We need to have a rough idea of its trend; currently, the bullish energy and bearish energy in the smaller time frame. If it’s a pullback, we need to figure out where it might pull back to. Do we trade in the direction of the trend, patiently waiting for a pullback to enter, or do we trade against the trend, taking small-level rebounds? People who shout about market reversals during larger fluctuations are usually either beginners or those who have become obsessed with offbeat theories.

Finally, to briefly talk about Ethereum, it didn't even break 4770 after the interest rate cut. The degree of decline is also greater than that of Bitcoin. My personal suggestion is that when trading Ethereum, in addition to those data indicators and candlestick charts, you should also pay attention to the trend of Bitcoin. Use the time of Bitcoin's trend to compare with Ethereum. Currently, Ethereum is also in a descending channel on the daily chart, and this recent rise has been much less impressive for Ethereum compared to Bitcoin, with the momentum decreasing each time. So for the next few days, everyone should mainly focus on Bitcoin, and that will be fine.