Why Now May Not Be the Best Time to Buy Bitcoin?

When the price of Bitcoin drops below $100,000, the familiar mantra of “buy the dip” resonates across social media and the investment community. While this enthusiasm can be understood given the potential of Bitcoin, I want to offer a contrasting perspective: now may not be the best time to invest in Bitcoin. Before going deeper, I want to emphasize that this is not investment advice but only my exploration of logic and perspective.

1. Avoid becoming illiquid One important reason why I warn against buying at this time is to protect retail investors from becoming “exit liquidity” for big players. In simpler terms, when big investors decide to sell, they rely on the increase in buyers to maintain or increase the price. Retail investors, driven by the fear of missing out (FOMO), often end up buying near the market peak, only to see the price drop immediately after. You need a strategy and patience to avoid this trap.
2. Discount does not always mean a price reduction. Despite the current price of Bitcoin seeming to have dropped, it is necessary to evaluate its historical context. A 13% decrease from the all-time high seems significant in traditional finance, but in the volatile Bitcoin market, this decrease is hardly noteworthy. In fact, Bitcoin often experiences daily price fluctuations at this level. Understanding the four-year cycle of Bitcoin is very important. Historically, the price of Bitcoin peaked around the time of the halving event and then decreased significantly in the following year. These price declines often lead to a drop to a level similar to the high of the previous cycle. Taking the 2022 cycle as an example: Previous peak: $20,000 (2017 cycle). Low in 2022: $15,500, a decrease of about 23% compared to the previous peak. If this pattern were to repeat in 2026, we might see Bitcoin drop to around $53,000—much lower than the current level. For those seeking real value, such a scenario represents a much better buying opportunity.
3. Important time, even for long-term investors While dollar cost averaging (DCA)—regularly buying Bitcoin regardless of price—is a proven strategy, new investors often wonder if now is a good time to buy. My answer will be: “not really”. Trying to time the market to coincide with Bitcoin’s historically low levels can significantly amplify long-term profits. Although I support holding Bitcoin as a long-term asset, you should also pause to consider whether this is the right time to maximize your investment.
4. Market momentum is broader Yes, there have been interesting developments, such as companies adding Bitcoin to their treasury and discussions surrounding national Bitcoin reserves. But there have also been large-scale sell-offs by countries and corporations. For example: Bhutan recently sold a portion of its Bitcoin holdings. Tesla and Germany have also liquidated some of their Bitcoin reserves. Such events highlight the unpredictable volatility of the market, even as the adoption by organizations continues to grow. What will the future be like? Bitcoin continues to follow a cyclical pattern and there is little reason to believe that this will change in the near future. If history is any guide, the current upward momentum may give way to a significant downturn in the years to come. When that happens, Bitcoin will present a real buying opportunity. Final thoughts This view is not intended to discourage responsible investing, especially for users of the DCA strategy. Instead, it is a call for patience and caution. If a loved one asks me if now is the time to buy Bitcoin, I would say, “Wait for a better opportunity”. Although the long-term prospects of Bitcoin remain promising, having a strategy in calculating the timing of purchases can make a significant difference in your financial gains. Therefore, while the market may seem attractive right now, the best opportunities often arise when others are selling in panic—not when the frenzy reaches its peak.