EMC Labs Bitcoin Weekly Watch: Nearly 8 weeks into the correction, the market may be about to give a choice

** The information, views and judgments on the market, projects, coins and other markets mentioned in this report are for reference only and do not constitute any investment advice. *

Market Summary:

On 26 April, a series of economic data released in the US continued to suggest the risk of persistent inflation, with the consensus expectation that a rate cut in 2024 would be delayed until Q4. As a result, the dollar index rebounded sharply. Naturally, Bitcoin, which is strongly and negatively correlated with the US dollar, quickly retreated in 2 days.

Last week, after fall broke the $60,000 mark, Bitcoin quickly Rebound to $67,000, but finally fell back to $62,000 after holding on for a week. So far, BTC has been oscillating in the range of 60,000-70,000 for nearly 8 weeks after hitting a new all-time high on March 13. Historically, each Halving has triggered a Bull Market, but because it reached a new all-time high before the Halving, this unprecedented move may temporarily deplete buyer power, and the market needs to continue to consolidate and wait for a full chip exchange.

$60,000, which is already the average custody price of mainstream mining rigs in the United States, is only one step away from triggering passive liquidation of miners. It has been or simply cleared in the range of 55,000-60,000 in the strong support area. As we said last week, in the range of 55,000-60,000 are the Miner Mining cost price, the ETF average cost price, and the short-lot breakeven point. These three will form a strong support zone, but if the market does not start an pump upward trend, there is also a possibility of a large-scale Capitulation in this range, which will trigger a stampede and may break through the support level.

Of course, if you look at today’s market in 1 year, you will most likely say that this is the last adjustment of this round of Bull Market, the last falls or the last clearing.

Since 2023, 8 weeks has tended to be a median time for consolidation. Now may be the time for the market to make a choice.

Supply and demand structure:

The market’s short-term investors’ earnings were once close to 4% and are now around 6%. Looking further, EMC Labs found that the overall shorts were selling at a loss, which has been a sign of a phased bottom over the past 2 years. The short-lot P&L indicator only appears -10% during an extreme Bear Market. From this perspective, even if the market chooses to fall, the fall is limited.

U.S. ETF had a total outflow of $320 million last week, a rise from the previous week’s outflow of $200 million. On the whole, the trend of moderate outflow is still maintained, but it is not significantly amplified.

The market may be underestimating the impact of Hong Kong’s BTC and ETH Spot ETF, which will officially launch tomorrow. Hong Kong’s innovative support for BTC and ETH in-kind subscriptions has actually opened up a channel between Virtual Money and fiat, and may trigger a gradual influx of global BTC and ETH Holdings Large Investors to Hong Kong, making it a global encryption center that can truly compete with the United States.

Last week, stablecoin inflows slowed sharply to only $400 million, a significant drop from last week’s $4 billion, and it remains to be seen whether it will continue.

As of April 28, the coin of Centralized Exchange was 2.32 million, an increase of 4,000 from last week, which is not a large increase, but it also shows a moderate and rise supply. At the same time, exchanges buying volume also fell further to $3.6 billion from $5.6 billion last week.

On the whole, the market has a strong wait-and-see mood, and the pace of new funds has slowed down significantly. This is the result of the dual effect of macroeconomic uncertainty and the accumulation of big pumps in the previous period.

EMC BTC Cycle Metric:

The EMC BTC Cycle indicator shows that we are at the beginning of a Bull Market acceleration (indicator strength of 0.75 compared to 0.75 last week, full strength of 1).

EMC Labs was founded in April 2023 by encryption asset investors and data scientists. Focusing on Blockchain industry research and Crypto secondary market investment, with industry foresight, insight and data mining as its core competitiveness, it is committed to participating in the booming Blockchain industry through research and investment, and promoting Blockchain and encryption assets to bring benefits to mankind.

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